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OOTP 16 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 01-29-2016, 05:30 PM   #61
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I use the default database because I prefer the way it handles defensive ratings for younger MLB players like Manny Machado, Juan Lagares, Yan Gomes etc.
Is there a defensive adjustment for young players that I do not make?

For the players mentioned their defensive stats are exactly the same in both databases as they only have major league stats in my database (so far) and those are just a copy of the default database stats. It is odd that they should result in different ratings.
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Old 01-29-2016, 08:22 PM   #62
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Is there a defensive adjustment for young players that I do not make?

For the players mentioned their defensive stats are exactly the same in both databases as they only have major league stats in my database (so far) and those are just a copy of the default database stats. It is odd that they should result in different ratings.
I don't know what it is Spritze. All I know is I have found that young players that come to the big leagues as defensive studs IRL like Machado, Lagares, Gomes, probably Kiermaier (though I don't have personal playing experience in his case to back it up) seem to mature faster in the default database, or even arrive as defensive studs as they did IRL.

I can't put my finger on why, as I don't have access to the under the hood stuff, and I probably wouldn't be very good with it if I did. Maybe it's in the initial ratings that are in the master.csv file? Just spitballing. I wish I could help put a finger on why it is, but I know when I was messing around with it earlier in the version 16 cycle, I definitely noticed it, and I noticed my personal preference for the way the MLBers turned out with the default database as far as defensive development was concerned with players. Maybe I'm just crazy or something - I don't know. I remember having a discussion with you about it somewhere. Here it is.

Your response is here.

After that discussion, I drifted back to the default database, and found that it seemed to handle these fellows better IMHO. I have no idea of the mechanics of why this is, I just know that it seems to be that way. I play random debut historical if that makes a difference, with 3 year recalc double-weighted on the current year. Ask about any of my other settings if you wish. I'd love to get to the bottom of it if we can.

I still love to use your database to import my Negro Leaguers, and NPBers, and KBOers, and PCLers into the game via the "Import Historical Player" tool, and you will always be the Lord of the Databases (TM) to me (as I believe you work on the default database as well, which throws a real monkey wrench of confusion into this whole saga for me... ), but I'm really enjoying it the way I have it set up, and to me that's all that really counts. Doesn't take anything away from your toil, sweat, and tears, and it doesn't make your database any less of an accomplishment that I could not begin to make for myself. Doesn't make me any less grateful for the effort you've put into it, as I will continue to integrate it into my game in my own weird way. Thanks for everything you have done around here, and everything you continue to do around here. It's truly mindboggling, at least to this simpleton.
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Old 01-29-2016, 09:23 PM   #63
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Just for grins I imported the Spritze Machado into the default database for 2012 and both Machado's started with nearly the same ratings each year, fielded similarly but not exactly alike. Same for 2013 and 2014 imports. I don't get why the ratings are not exactly the same though. Must be a difference due to the import process.

BUT

I also left all 6 Machado's in the game, even with recalc on they all diverged a bit as time went by. A pretty big bit in fact. It appears to be random as 2 Machados got a little bit better as time went on and 3 got worse at fielding. 1 stayed about the same. One of the ones who got worse was a default Machado. One of the ones who got better was a Spritzified one.

I think there may be some regression of the meanies involved.
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Old 01-29-2016, 10:33 PM   #64
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Just for grins I imported the Spritze Machado into the default database for 2012 and both Machado's started with nearly the same ratings each year, fielded similarly but not exactly alike. Same for 2013 and 2014 imports.

BUT

I also left all 6 Machado's in the game, even with recalc on they all diverged a bit as time went by. A pretty big bit in fact. It appears to be random as 2 Machados got a little bit better as time went on and 3 got worse at fielding. 1 stayed about the same. One of the ones who got worse was a default Machado. One of the ones who got better was a Spritzified one.

I think there may be some regression of the meanies involved.
Player development on as well? I play with 3 year recalc double weighted and the player development system on at default settings, neutered stats, when doing my historical random debut games. I do that, so that when players get beyond their stats (or their recalc period if you will), they will age as the player development system is set up to have them age. Sometimes good, sometimes not so much...

Clayton Kershaw went from being in the Cy Young/MVP discussion every year to a dumpster fire almost overnight after he went beyond his stats. From age 26 through 28, he was the "talk of the league". By age 31, he was a washed up middle reliever, and he didn't pitch again after his age 33 season. He hung around as a free agent for four more years and retired at age 37. Them the breaks when you're at the mercy of the player development system I guess. Kershaw's age 26 season would've been the final one under recalc, and it may have extended into age 27 because of the three year thingy.

This is all apropos of nothing I suppose, at least it's not on the subject that brought us here originally, but that's me...I'm a bit of a wanderer. Interesting about The Divergent Machados (sounds like a name for a mariachi band no? Ok, I'll show myself out) and their differing endpoints. Thanks for testing that out. Maybe my paranoia got the better of me. Sorry to have been a pest. I didn't intend any offense, but realize I may have caused some. My apologies.
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Old 01-30-2016, 01:20 AM   #65
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Player development on as well? Yes I play with 3 year recalc double weighted yes and the player development system on at default settings Yes , neutered stats, Yes when doing my historical random debut No games. I do that, so that when players get beyond their stats (or their recalc period if you will), they will age as the player development system is set up to have them age. Sometimes good, sometimes not so much...

Clayton Kershaw went from being in the Cy Young/MVP discussion every year to a dumpster fire almost overnight after he went beyond his stats. From age 26 through 28, he was the "talk of the league". By age 31, he was a washed up middle reliever, and he didn't pitch again after his age 33 season. He hung around as a free agent for four more years and retired at age 37. Them the breaks when you're at the mercy of the player development system I guess. Kershaw's age 26 season would've been the final one under recalc, and it may have extended into age 27 because of the three year thingy.

This is all apropos of nothing I suppose, at least it's not on the subject that brought us here originally, but that's me...I'm a bit of a wanderer. Interesting about The Divergent Machados (sounds like a name for a mariachi band no? Ok, I'll show myself out) and their differing endpoints. Thanks for testing that out. Maybe my paranoia got the better of me. Sorry to have been a pest. I didn't intend any offense None taken, just trying to make things better , but realize I may have caused some. My apologies.
I did not use random debut so I could control the Machiachi Band easier.
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Old 01-30-2016, 10:53 AM   #66
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So AJ you just sim? I might try starting an RD in 1871 and simming to 2015 and see who does what. Figure i will leave use of relievers at low but use of closers at normal pre 1969.
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Old 01-30-2016, 01:28 PM   #67
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So AJ you just sim? I might try starting an RD in 1871 and simming to 2015 and see who does what. Figure i will leave use of relievers at low but use of closers at normal pre 1969.
At the moment I just sim. I came up with an idea to use the stats output, strategy settings and PCMs from one season (1984) across all seasons, so I started testing that. I just liked the look of the MLB stats for that year, as they seemed right in the middle for all of history. A .260/.323/.385/.708 across the league output seemed not too pitching heavy and not too hitting heavy, and that's what I wanted. It can carry me through the deadest of the deadball era, as well as the 1920's and 1930's when the league did something to the baseball to enhance offense, and the steroid era when "something else" was going on, and of course the many seasons in between.

Then, I wanted to see the HoF voting in action, so I had to play many seasons to get to a point where that starts up, and the best way to move quickly through a sim is not to take up a team, so I didn't. That doesn't mean I won't take up a team in the future, it's just that right now, I'm still figuring things out for how I want to set up my ultimate random debut league. I've also grown attached to these players, even though none of them are "on my team", but I have no doubt that when it's time to start over and create my ultimate RD league, I'll be ready to do it.

Still figuring things out though. I like the fact that I can have my own rules as I move through history (DH in one league, 162 game schedule, top 2 teams get to the playoffs in the old 8 teams per subleague setup), as well as have the stats fall somewhere in a range that I want to see them in, rather than having them bounce all over the place. It's kind of neat that Markus has given us all of these tools and options to really create the type of league we want, so I'm gonna take full advantage of it.

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Old 01-31-2016, 05:54 PM   #68
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Cobb, Morgan, and Rodriguez up the middle? Criminy! Is the SS a defensive specialist? That's one helluvan up the middle, and you know what they say about strength up the middle.

Keep us posted on this potential juggernaut. Of course, injuries can always strike, but that's arguably the 4th best catcher in the entire history of baseball (behind Bench, Carter, Fisk), the 4th best 2B ever (behind Hornsby, Collins, Lajoie), the 3rd best 3B ever (behind Schmidt, Mathews), and the 2nd best CF ever (behind Mays). At the very worst they're each in the top 5 at their respective positions. Holy crap! That team should romp to the title, but there's always injuries and down years.
Cleveland won their second straight World Series and have now won 5 of the last 7. Morgan spent the majority of the season on the DL, playing in only 30 games. Cobb hit .374, but dealt with injuries as well. He played in 117 games, missing the last 2+ weeks of the season and the entire World Series. Boggs hit .330. Ivan Rodriguez flirted with .400 all season, but slumped in September falling to .390. His first batting title. You asked about their shortstop, it's Bucky Dent.
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Old 01-31-2016, 10:18 PM   #69
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Cleveland won their second straight World Series and have now won 5 of the last 7. Morgan spent the majority of the season on the DL, playing in only 30 games. Cobb hit .374, but dealt with injuries as well. He played in 117 games, missing the last 2+ weeks of the season and the entire World Series. Boggs hit .330. Ivan Rodriguez flirted with .400 all season, but slumped in September falling to .390. His first batting title. You asked about their shortstop, it's Bucky Dent.
Bucky "Bleepin'" Dent? Oh well, I guess they can't have all-timers at every position.

Johnny Bench did not go first overall in the draft. The A's snagged him with the number 4 pick. The Yankees took your man "Sweet" Lou Whitaker with the first overall pick. Then the next two teams had brain farts, and left Bench sitting there for the A's.
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Old 02-01-2016, 06:18 AM   #70
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AJ if i start in 1871, what settings should i use pre 1900? Since there will be some Closers in that time period i want them to have some stats vs 1-2 saves per year but dont really want them getting 50. I also want to still use a 3 or 4 man rotation with the 140 or so game schedule.
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Old 02-01-2016, 08:22 AM   #71
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Bucky "Bleepin'" Dent? Oh well, I guess they can't have all-timers at every position.

Johnny Bench did not go first overall in the draft. The A's snagged him with the number 4 pick. The Yankees took your man "Sweet" Lou Whitaker with the first overall pick. Then the next two teams had brain farts, and left Bench sitting there for the A's.
Whitaker received 51% votes for his first go round with the Hall of Fame committee. I think he will make it in.

I've been having some rather nothing to hoot about drafts lately. Chet Lemon dropped for 81. Really need a couple stud pitchers. I've never had Seaver, Carlton or Gooden in a random debut. Really hope to see them soon.
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Old 02-01-2016, 01:47 PM   #72
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Whitaker received 51% votes for his first go round with the Hall of Fame committee. I think he will make it in.

I've been having some rather nothing to hoot about drafts lately. Chet Lemon dropped for 81. Really need a couple stud pitchers. I've never had Seaver, Carlton or Gooden in a random debut. Really hope to see them soon.
You should've voted for "Sweet" Lou (I know you don't like to interfere with the committee in your game, but still ). Lemon's a massively underrated player. The reason the Tigers were so good in the 1980's was Parrish/Whitaker/Trammell/Lemon up the middle. Jack Morris likes to think he was the reason, and he is the one that's been closest to getting into the Hall, but Whitaker and Trammell have been completely shafted. If Morris ever does get in, he better recognize the contributions of those four to his "success" (I just don't see Morris as all that special [a 105 ERA+, 44.1 rWAR, 38.4 JAWS, which places him between Jon Matlack and Bill Hutchinson? Excuse me while I yawn]). We'll see if his hubris will allow such humility - Yeah...Um...Not a fan.

I've had Steve Carlton in my game for 11 seasons now. He's 143-105, with 3 saves and a 3.08 ERA (129 ERA+) through his age 29 season, and is about to receive his 1st Cy Young for his age 29 season in 1925, after winning the pitching triple crown with a 19-8 record, 2.40 ERA (163 ERA+), leading the NL in IP with 273.2 IP, 99 BB, and 267 K, 8.8 K/9, and leading MLB in pitching WAR with a 7.8 WAR. I've had Gooden before in another random debut, but not this one. Carlton was the Cy Young runner up in 1917 at age 21, and again in 1921 at age 25. He's definitely the best starting pitcher I've ever seen in a random debut, and I'm looking forward to seeing how the rest of his career progresses.

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Old 02-01-2016, 02:12 PM   #73
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AJ if i start in 1871, what settings should i use pre 1900? Since there will be some Closers in that time period i want them to have some stats vs 1-2 saves per year but dont really want them getting 50. I also want to still use a 3 or 4 man rotation with the 140 or so game schedule.
Remember that in 1871, the schedule is only 30 games long. You can change it to fit what you want, but you might have to make up a schedule for it. I myself, would never start before 1882 when OOTP expands to 16 teams. I remember (from past play) that expansion being pretty rough, as the league is doubling in size. Talk about watering down the talent base. My guess is you're looking for strategy settings from somewhere in the 1970's when the four man rotation (I think) was in effect, and closers (or firemen as they were known then) were just coming into prominence. David Watts might know specific timing for 3-man, 4-man and 5-man rotations better than I do, as well as holding closers to the limits you seem to want to hold them to. So...Uh...David? I use 1984 for mine, and by then closers are getting 40 and sometimes 50 saves, and that doesn't sound like what you want.

My guess is that you also want LTMs from somewhere close to where you set your strategy settings. Remember that 1871 baseball is a festival of errors because they played with no gloves and later with gloves that bear absolutely no resemblance to what we think of as a baseball glove today. If you want fewer errors, you'll need to lock your LTMs to a year when gloves were reasonably decent I would think. It might also be a good idea to tie your PCMs to the same era as well. I think it just makes sense to lock your LTMs, strategy settings, and PCMs to the same year, but you may disagree, and as to what year that is, you may have to do some experimenting to figure that out for yourself. I hope I've helped a little bit, but it is kind of trial and error until you find the right spot. I suggest going with a four man rotation because I believe three man rotations go back to the 19th century/early 20th century, and that may not be ideal for your closer folks.
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Old 02-03-2016, 08:22 PM   #74
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Whitaker received 51% votes for his first go round with the Hall of Fame committee. I think he will make it in.

I've been having some rather nothing to hoot about drafts lately. Chet Lemon dropped for 81. Really need a couple stud pitchers. I've never had Seaver, Carlton or Gooden in a random debut. Really hope to see them soon.
Hoot! Hoot! Holla! Mickey Mantle is in my upcoming draft in a game that already has Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Cal Ripken, Johnny Bench, Reggie Smith (stud in my game), Rod Carew, Miguel Cabrera, Ed Konetchy, Lou Whitaker. Geez Louise! Need some pitching to calm these awesome bats down. Phil Niekro's in this draft as well. Steve Carlton's in the game as mentioned above, but goodness gracious. This is getting cool.
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Old 02-04-2016, 11:03 AM   #75
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Hoot! Hoot! Holla! Mickey Mantle is in my upcoming draft in a game that already has Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Cal Ripken, Johnny Bench, Reggie Smith (stud in my game), Rod Carew, Miguel Cabrera, Ed Konetchy, Lou Whitaker. Geez Louise! Need some pitching to calm these awesome bats down. Phil Niekro's in this draft as well. Steve Carlton's in the game as mentioned above, but goodness gracious. This is getting cool.
I had Mantle in an earlier RD and he was spectacular when he was healthy. Phil Niekro is in my Hall. Always like it when Reggie Smith does well. He's from Shreveport Louisiana. You must be getting all my studs. Like I said above, I've been having some rather blah drafts.

By the way, I'm in late August of 81 and once again Cleveland is running away with their division. 91/2 game lead over Cincinnati. Been as many as 12 games ahead. This year Joe Morgan is having the great year. Cobb is actually only flirting with .300 and has been in the .290's as much as the .300's. Boggs was hitting .325, before going down with a 6 week+ injury. Rodriguez is hitting .295. There team average is so much higher than the league. Plus, they get on base like no other team.

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Old 02-04-2016, 07:12 PM   #76
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Screenshot time. First, the amazing Frank Robinson, then Bret Saberhagen, and finally your Shreveport pal Reggie Smith:
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Old 02-06-2016, 06:28 PM   #77
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Gorman Thomas is off to a stellar start to the 1983 season, 1-49, .020, wow.
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Old 02-06-2016, 06:52 PM   #78
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Gorman Thomas is off to a stellar start to the 1983 season, 1-49, .020, wow.
How many Ks for big ole Stormin' Gorman?
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Old 02-06-2016, 08:51 PM   #79
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How many Ks for big ole Stormin' Gorman?
He's up to .065, 4-72. 17 whiffs.
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Old 02-06-2016, 09:30 PM   #80
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Remember that in 1871, the schedule is only 30 games long. You can change it to fit what you want, but you might have to make up a schedule for it. I myself, would never start before 1882 when OOTP expands to 16 teams. I remember (from past play) that expansion being pretty rough, as the league is doubling in size. Talk about watering down the talent base. My guess is you're looking for strategy settings from somewhere in the 1970's when the four man rotation (I think) was in effect, and closers (or firemen as they were known then) were just coming into prominence. David Watts might know specific timing for 3-man, 4-man and 5-man rotations better than I do, as well as holding closers to the limits you seem to want to hold them to. So...Uh...David? I use 1984 for mine, and by then closers are getting 40 and sometimes 50 saves, and that doesn't sound like what you want.

My guess is that you also want LTMs from somewhere close to where you set your strategy settings. Remember that 1871 baseball is a festival of errors because they played with no gloves and later with gloves that bear absolutely no resemblance to what we think of as a baseball glove today. If you want fewer errors, you'll need to lock your LTMs to a year when gloves were reasonably decent I would think. It might also be a good idea to tie your PCMs to the same era as well. I think it just makes sense to lock your LTMs, strategy settings, and PCMs to the same year, but you may disagree, and as to what year that is, you may have to do some experimenting to figure that out for yourself. I hope I've helped a little bit, but it is kind of trial and error until you find the right spot. I suggest going with a four man rotation because I believe three man rotations go back to the 19th century/early 20th century, and that may not be ideal for your closer folks.
I started a random league in 1871, expansion according to history and at the start of 1879 my career leader in career saves has a whopping 10.
Rosters are not a problem as they are without random debut but still you may not want a 25 man active roster if you have recalc off cause some players may not get the chance to show what they can do with less teams.
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