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Old 03-28-2017, 12:43 PM   #21
cavebutter
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Sim 3- Overview

So I ran the sim again over night. (I am really having a problem with sim times. Just installed the patch this morning so hopefully things will get better?)

Here's the details for Sim 3.

Same league structure as before.
1990 baseline.
L1 - Reputation 10; Financials 100%
L2 - Reputation 7; Financials 50%
L3 - Reputation 4; Financials 10%
L4 - Reputation 1; Financials 5%

All leagues are in an association with a shared, random order draft pool.
Simmed from 1990 through 2008.

Starting to crunch numbers now, but the initial numbers look promising.

A note about stadium capacity. I mentioned it before in this thread as well as in another one. I don't want to have to monkey around with stadium capacities as teams move up and down the ladder. It's too much work, and not realistic for teams to have to make major stadium renovations each time they get promoted or relegated. From a financial standpoint, the relevant factor is revenue. That said, all of the stadia in this sim have capacities between 33-51k.

More soon.
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Old 03-28-2017, 01:08 PM   #22
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Sim 3 - Overview

Sim 3 went very well and gave me exactly the kind of results I was looking for. Analysis below the table:





Ticket prices did not change much at all over the course of the sim. This is because I did not import new financials every year and because I did not set any kind of inflation. The next, and final sim, will include modest inflation year over year. Ticket prices ranged from $9 in L1 to $0.89 in L4. It seems a little low, but it kept budgets, revenue, and payroll in line with expectations.

The spread in payroll over the course of the sim stayed even as well. In year 1, L4 payroll averaged at 3% of L1; L2 at 18%; L3 at 4%. At the halfway point in year 9, it broke down like this:
L2: 31%
L3: 12%
L4: 7%

By the end of the sim, the breakdown was:
L2: 33%
L3: 13%
L4: 7.5%

That's not bad at all. We'll take a look at how this translates in teams being able to move up the ladder in a little bit, but we are definitely seeing the kind of stratification we wanted. It remains to be seen if it produces the gameplay results we were after.

Total revenue is also in line with expectations. The spread in year 1 is exactly what we configured it to be: 100%, 50%, 10%, 5%. By the midpoint, we saw some slight deviation:
L2: 43%
L3: 11%
L4: 4%

In the last year of the sim, we were at:
L2: 43%
L3: 10%
L4: 4%

Very tight.

I'm very happy with the way this turned out. The last thing to check is how individual teams manage pro/rel.
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Old 03-28-2017, 01:19 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cavebutter View Post
A note about stadium capacity. I mentioned it before in this thread as well as in another one. I don't want to have to monkey around with stadium capacities as teams move up and down the ladder. It's too much work, and not realistic for teams to have to make major stadium renovations each time they get promoted or relegated. From a financial standpoint, the relevant factor is revenue. That said, all of the stadia in this sim have capacities between 33-51k.

More soon.
I'm sure I've seen suggestions before to use stadium size as an efficient, direct proxy for market size. In other words, one would give big market teams bigger stadiums and thus more gate revenue.

In building my league, I'm using neutral stadium stats for gameplay and basically placing every team in a generic park by level. So there's a "Premier League Ballpark" with 60k seats, a "Major League Ballpark" with 45k seats, and so on down the levels.

In my world I'm going to assume that promotion means the team gets to expand their capacity, but they don't have to downsize when they are relegated. A stadium once expanded stays expanded. That will give relegated teams a financial advantage, but I'm hoping that will offset some of these wacky owner decisions you've noted in which they suddenly spend less when relegated or promoted.

Also, in building my league I noticed that (as suggested above) the estimated financials often were out of whack after using the fixed modifiers to reduce the payrolls and so forth automatically. I boosted the media revenues for each league to offset what seemed to be projected deficits for each team, but that meant there was less spread between the media revenues at each level than I anticipated. I don't know how much that will affect things once I start sims, but I'll report back.
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Old 03-28-2017, 01:24 PM   #24
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Individual teams are behaving pretty rationally in response to ladder movement. I can't share charts at this point, but in glancing through individual team histories, I didn't see many outliers.

I am going to run one more sim with modest inflation built in just to make sure it doesn't break anything. Once that's done, I'll go find/make logos and unis for my world leagues and have at it.
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Old 03-28-2017, 01:38 PM   #25
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Quote:
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Thanks to the guys providing financial information on the EPL. It does help give an idea of the financial separation between the leagues.
It literally is a gulf between the Premier and the rest. It's quite honestly in danger of becoming a closed shop with the same teams going up and down and that's not a good thing in my opinion.

I wonder if that would become the same in OOTP? I suppose it would depend on whether you had minors or a reserve roster meaning how many players they could stockpile. If they only had say a 15 man reserve roster any one team could only keep 40 players so the talent would be spread around a little more I imagine, that's assuming the other teams could afford to sign those good players that might be floating around without a team. Intriguing stuff!

Looking forward to trying out some ideas myself to see how things look. I particularly liked an idea on another thread that someone had of using the leagues with the game. So the MLB would be the Premier, Japan the Championship and so on down through Korea, Mexico and so on.
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Old 03-28-2017, 01:51 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Uk View Post
It literally is a gulf between the Premier and the rest. It's quite honestly in danger of becoming a closed shop with the same teams going up and down and that's not a good thing in my opinion.

I wonder if that would become the same in OOTP? I suppose it would depend on whether you had minors or a reserve roster meaning how many players they could stockpile. If they only had say a 15 man reserve roster any one team could only keep 40 players so the talent would be spread around a little more I imagine, that's assuming the other teams could afford to sign those good players that might be floating around without a team. Intriguing stuff!

Looking forward to trying out some ideas myself to see how things look. I particularly liked an idea on another thread that someone had of using the leagues with the game. So the MLB would be the Premier, Japan the Championship and so on down through Korea, Mexico and so on.
Yeah, I am not looking to simulate the EPL. I know a lot of people are, but I would rather see more movement and success by the smaller clubs. I don't want to see the same teams going back and forth between leagues.
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Old 03-28-2017, 01:53 PM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cavebutter View Post
Individual teams are behaving pretty rationally in response to ladder movement. I can't share charts at this point, but in glancing through individual team histories, I didn't see many outliers.

I am going to run one more sim with modest inflation built in just to make sure it doesn't break anything. Once that's done, I'll go find/make logos and unis for my world leagues and have at it.
Looking good. I was just thinking is there a way you can put one of the best teams in the lowest division to start? Have them set as the others in that league but perhaps give them a big wedge of cash and see if over the course of the sim they can move themselves up?
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Old 03-28-2017, 01:54 PM   #28
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Yeah, I am not looking to simulate the EPL. I know a lot of people are, but I would rather see more movement and success by the smaller clubs. I don't want to see the same teams going back and forth between leagues.
Yeah that's my thoughts on it to. It would be great to start out with a team in the lowest league and see how far you can get, but not if it's an unnattainable goal
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Old 03-28-2017, 02:05 PM   #29
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I can tell you in my last sim a team went from League 3 to League 1 and won 4 straight titles in league 1. They were a big market club though. I may start my next sim with big market teams in League 1, mid market teams in league 2 and smaller market teams in league 3. I would be interested to see if the smaller markets can climb up to league 1.
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Old 03-28-2017, 04:17 PM   #30
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I am really having a problem with sim times.
Try going into settings and check the "Number of Helper Threads" setting. I saw in another thread that if you upgrade from the beta version it might disable this setting.
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Old 03-28-2017, 04:54 PM   #31
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Thanks for that suggestion. I checked and it is at the default 8. Any idea which direction I should nudge it in for faster performance?
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Old 03-28-2017, 05:13 PM   #32
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Quote:
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It literally is a gulf between the Premier and the rest. It's quite honestly in danger of becoming a closed shop with the same teams going up and down and that's not a good thing in my opinion.

I wonder if that would become the same in OOTP? I suppose it would depend on whether you had minors or a reserve roster meaning how many players they could stockpile. If they only had say a 15 man reserve roster any one team could only keep 40 players so the talent would be spread around a little more I imagine, that's assuming the other teams could afford to sign those good players that might be floating around without a team. Intriguing stuff!
In my five seasons that I simmed Burton had gotten promoted to the Premier League and actually won the World Series (Playoff of 6 teams) and Tottenham were relegated down to League One and have been there for about three seasons or so. My Rochdale went down to League Two and Manchester City have won the World Series twice and Leicester had the best record after the first season haha
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Old 03-28-2017, 05:53 PM   #33
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How you set the National and Local Media income is going to have a big impact on whether smaller market teams can move up.
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Old 03-28-2017, 06:41 PM   #34
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I apologize that I haven't fully read the thread, but one thing I wanted to chime in on, is that ticket prices set by the AI are fairly well-explained by the "fan loyalty" number. i.e. fan loyalty=100 teams have the highest ticket prices.

Every year in my league I do a linear regression of ticket prices vs. fan loyalty to determine where to set my own ticket prices. Usually 50-70% of the variance in ticket prices is explained by this alone. I figure the rest is tied up in market size, team strategy, and some owner/gm attributes.

The point being, one way to perhaps handle the ticket sales aspect of financials (this is on OOTP's side, I don't think we can change this number even in comissioner mode?) would be to stratify the fan loyalty by league. By capping fan loyalty at say 20 in the lowest league, and setting a floor at 80 in the highest, ticket prices in the lowest league would automatically be drastically lower.

I apologize if you've covered this in the thread already; I see you've done a ton of work and I'm just posting on a break at work. Didn't have time to pour over it all.
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Old 03-28-2017, 10:16 PM   #35
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Thanks for that suggestion. I checked and it is at the default 8. Any idea which direction I should nudge it in for faster performance?
As long as it is at the user recommended setting it should be fine.

You could try disabling some of the stuff you don't need in Game Settings -> Global Settings -> Auto Save & Log Settings such as box scores, game recaps, etc.

There was a thread I read somewhere about speeding up the game, but I can't seem to find it anywhere.
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Old 03-28-2017, 10:56 PM   #36
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Unfortunately it doesn't appear using attendance baseline is a valid option. I assumed when they would jump up to the next league they would take on that leagues baseline like they do with ticket prices, but it keeps the teams where they first started.
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Old 03-28-2017, 11:55 PM   #37
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As long as it is at the user recommended setting it should be fine.

You could try disabling some of the stuff you don't need in Game Settings -> Global Settings -> Auto Save & Log Settings such as box scores, game recaps, etc.

There was a thread I read somewhere about speeding up the game, but I can't seem to find it anywhere.


Oh! I wonder if it's game logs and recaps! Since all 4 leagues are ML level and I have 150 teams that could be it. Will definitely check that. Thanks for that!


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Old 03-29-2017, 01:36 AM   #38
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Some great stuff in here! Thanks Cave, et al.
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Old 03-29-2017, 02:00 AM   #39
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Interesting thread. A couple thoughts...

There should be some stadium size differences. Just like the leagues in Europe, there's a handful of teams that have huge stadiums, more that have large, and then on down the line. So Yankee Stadium of course gives the NYY a big advantage over a fictional team in a small market. (not too mention the fan base to draw from).

Can you simulate ownership changes? IE: a medium market team is taken over by a big money owner who can infuse the team with cash. Think Manchester City on a large scale or QPR and Fulham on a medium one.

But....some interesting reading and thanks for sharing. I tried putting together a test league tonight and ran into a lot of the realizations others have. There's a lot of financial stuff that I didn't give enough thought to.
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Old 03-29-2017, 07:57 AM   #40
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Another suggestion for game performance...

Go into Game Settings
On the right side under Auto-Save & Log Settings
Set Save 3D Movements from.. to None

I saw this suggested in another thread by one of the OOTPDevs. Not sure how much impact it will have but something that might help.
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