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Old 01-17-2019, 09:07 AM   #1
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Last 5 AH Values

Is the plan to stick with the "Last 5" option as one of the reported card value indices in v20? I'm not sure what the AH volume is like but I would strongly recommend that the sample size be increased to something like 25 if possible. The Last 5 value seems to be what people go by the most but it's highly susceptible to outliers. The 96 OVR Yaz card, for example was at ~70K then dropping to ~50K in like one day. I'd say that something weird happened (such as someone posting one for the minimum 4K price) but I was under the impression that efforts were being made to remove those instances from the calculation. Is that the case? If not, then I think some alternative to the "Last 5" value needs to be considered. Increase the N=5 to something larger, use a Bayesian mean estimate with the "all-time" value as a prior and the "Last 5" as the likelihood, etc.
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Old 01-17-2019, 09:34 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ASURay View Post
Is the plan to stick with the "Last 5" option as one of the reported card value indices in v20? I'm not sure what the AH volume is like but I would strongly recommend that the sample size be increased to something like 25 if possible. The Last 5 value seems to be what people go by the most but it's highly susceptible to outliers. The 96 OVR Yaz card, for example was at ~70K then dropping to ~50K in like one day. I'd say that something weird happened (such as someone posting one for the minimum 4K price) but I was under the impression that efforts were being made to remove those instances from the calculation. Is that the case? If not, then I think some alternative to the "Last 5" value needs to be considered. Increase the N=5 to something larger, use a Bayesian mean estimate with the "all-time" value as a prior and the "Last 5" as the likelihood, etc.

Actually a card I was trying to sell had the market collapse and it was properly reflected in the "last 5". I kept lowering it and couldn't sell. Nobody wanted it for the last 5 price but eventually it sold and when I checked a couples thereafter I noticed it continued to trend down some.
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Old 01-17-2019, 09:44 AM   #3
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Old 01-17-2019, 09:54 AM   #4
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Actually a card I was trying to sell had the market collapse and it was properly reflected in the "last 5". I kept lowering it and couldn't sell. Nobody wanted it for the last 5 price but eventually it sold and when I checked a couples thereafter I noticed it continued to trend down some.
Certainly. I'm not arguing that the Last 5 price isn't responsive to trends. I'm arguing that it's too sensitive with respect to potentially anomalous events. At the very least I would like to see a confidence interval around the Last 5 value reported. For many of these cards, the Last 5 value might be like 50K but a 95% confidence interval might include the range of 40K-60K due to variability in the prices.

Last edited by ASURay; 01-17-2019 at 09:55 AM.
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Old 01-17-2019, 10:02 AM   #5
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For many of these cards, the Last 5 value might be like 50K but a 95% confidence interval might include the range of 40K-60K due to variability in the prices.
My concern with this (as a seller) would be that people would look at the lower end of the confidence interval as more of a target than the current median value.
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Old 01-17-2019, 11:04 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ASURay View Post
Is the plan to stick with the "Last 5" option as one of the reported card value indices in v20? I'm not sure what the AH volume is like but I would strongly recommend that the sample size be increased to something like 25 if possible. The Last 5 value seems to be what people go by the most but it's highly susceptible to outliers. The 96 OVR Yaz card, for example was at ~70K then dropping to ~50K in like one day. I'd say that something weird happened (such as someone posting one for the minimum 4K price) but I was under the impression that efforts were being made to remove those instances from the calculation. Is that the case? If not, then I think some alternative to the "Last 5" value needs to be considered. Increase the N=5 to something larger, use a Bayesian mean estimate with the "all-time" value as a prior and the "Last 5" as the likelihood, etc.
Can't find the thread, but one low purchase of 4K should not have an effect. One of the Devs "if I recall correctly" mentioned that the outlier amounts were tossed out. I don't recall the method used, but he had said something to the effect if bids were 50 50 50 50 80 that the last 5 would show 50.

I could be remembering wrong since I can't find the post to copy it here. Maybe they'll mention it again here. Devs?
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Old 01-17-2019, 11:25 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by <Pion> View Post
Can't find the thread, but one low purchase of 4K should not have an effect. One of the Devs "if I recall correctly" mentioned that the outlier amounts were tossed out. I don't recall the method used, but he had said something to the effect if bids were 50 50 50 50 80 that the last 5 would show 50.

I could be remembering wrong since I can't find the post to copy it here. Maybe they'll mention it again here. Devs?
With one of the updates, the "last 5" was changed to show the median bid of the last 5, which should prevent outliers, but can affect things if you happen to have a few cheap bids in a row for a card.
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Old 01-17-2019, 06:49 PM   #8
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With one of the updates, the "last 5" was changed to show the median bid of the last 5, which should prevent outliers, but can affect things if you happen to have a few cheap bids in a row for a card.
The median "bid" or the median final price?
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Old 01-17-2019, 07:19 PM   #9
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The median "bid" or the median final price?
Pretty sure he meant Median sale price. He posted it in another thread awhile back and that's how it read to me.

I disagree about 5 being a large enough pool to keep out the outliers though. It's going to be more accurate than average (maybe), but it's still an extremely small sample that could be fairly easily manipulated if someone really wanted.
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Old 01-17-2019, 08:44 PM   #10
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Certainly the volume of availability of the card in question makes a huge difference here (compare the number of Paxton’s to the number of all star Keuchels for example) but what about simply adding a third calculation... go All Time, Last 25, last 5?
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Old 01-18-2019, 12:36 AM   #11
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Certainly the volume of availability of the card in question makes a huge difference here (compare the number of Paxton’s to the number of all star Keuchels for example) but what about simply adding a third calculation... go All Time, Last 25, last 5?
My 2.78 ERA, 3.22 FIP Perfect League Keuchel tells me that his rarity isn't the reason for his 10K price tag. He is a high Diamond performer disguised as a Gold.
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Old 01-18-2019, 08:19 AM   #12
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My 2.78 ERA, 3.22 FIP Perfect League Keuchel tells me that his rarity isn't the reason for his 10K price tag. He is a high Diamond performer disguised as a Gold.
I was giddy to snatch him up last night for 9700. GIDDY.
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Old 01-18-2019, 10:27 AM   #13
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My 2.78 ERA, 3.22 FIP Perfect League Keuchel tells me that his rarity isn't the reason for his 10K price tag. He is a high Diamond performer disguised as a Gold.
I'm skeptical of any lefty SP at the Perfect League level so I'm avoiding him for now.
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Old 01-18-2019, 10:30 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunzie View Post
Certainly the volume of availability of the card in question makes a huge difference here (compare the number of Paxton’s to the number of all star Keuchels for example) but what about simply adding a third calculation... go All Time, Last 25, last 5?
Even better, why not just make the raw data available? I think the AH needs a full redesign in v20. The expand/collapse view presentation for the player cards is cumbersome and causes crashes in my experience. I'd prefer to have to click on each card then be brought to a player profile page where I can see all the ratings (including LH/RH splits), the auction performance of that card over the past week/month/all-time, stats that card has produced at each level, etc. We also need a watch list (which I understand is coming), more detailed filters (filter by ratings, sort by ratings, etc.), as well as an option to set email notifications when certain cards hit the market.
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Old 01-18-2019, 10:33 AM   #15
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I'm skeptical of any lefty SP at the Perfect League level so I'm avoiding him for now.
I think it all depends on your defense. If you're strong on the infield, he can probably work, since he'll induce a lot of ground balls and give up next to no homers. If you're weak up the middle, he probably won't be nearly as effective. I'm switching things up on my Perfect League team, training Lindor at 2B and moving Simmons back into the starting lineup at SS. Once Lindor gets fully trained that will be two 100+ defenders, and I think that's where Keuchel will thrive.
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Old 01-18-2019, 10:30 PM   #16
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My 2.78 ERA, 3.22 FIP Perfect League Keuchel tells me that his rarity isn't the reason for his 10K price tag. He is a high Diamond performer disguised as a Gold.
You guys hoarding that card are no fun. Cough him up already. Oh and if it isn’t too much trouble could ya pm me before you do?
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