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Old 03-08-2019, 11:50 AM   #1
max venerabel
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Opening Day Dice Roll?

I've noticed that a handful of players on my team each year seem to be in year long slumps, playing well below their career average. And, conversely, a few each year play better than expected.



The likelihood of this being random seems rather small, since ratings for PP players are static and landing six (for instance) month long slumps in a row would be statistically unlikely. I'm wondering if there may be a pre-season dice roll of some sort that prompts good or bad seasons for players.


If this is the case, it would make a lot of sense to keep a strong reserve roster, identify slumping players a quarter of the way into the season and get them off the field.


Not a strategy I've personally employed much, but I often look back at the season's individual stats on a Sunday and wish I had.


Anyone put any thought into it?
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Old 03-08-2019, 11:59 AM   #2
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I'd say definitely nope.

Every card has ratings and those ratings are used for each and every play that player is involved in all season every season. It's just math.

Fiddling with hot and cold players seems insane to me. They are cards, not people. The card with the better ratings will always do better in the long run, so putting worse players in is a mistake.
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:03 PM   #3
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I agree. No need to force anything internally. Sometimes you simply can't roll doubles no matter what you do.
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:04 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by zrog2000 View Post
I'd say definitely nope.

Every card has ratings and those ratings are used for each and every play that player is involved in all season every season. It's just math.



Are we sure about that? Could there be a hidden modifier, say called "season", which plays a factor?

Not sure how one could say definitively that this is not the case...
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:07 PM   #5
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The devs have said there's nothing like this. Whether you choose to believe them is your call.
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:29 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by max venerabel View Post
I've noticed that a handful of players on my team each year seem to be in year long slumps, playing well below their career average. And, conversely, a few each year play better than expected.

The likelihood of this being random seems rather small, since ratings for PP players are static and landing six (for instance) month long slumps in a row would be statistically unlikely. I'm wondering if there may be a pre-season dice roll of some sort that prompts good or bad seasons for players.

If this is the case, it would make a lot of sense to keep a strong reserve roster, identify slumping players a quarter of the way into the season and get them off the field.

Not a strategy I've personally employed much, but I often look back at the season's individual stats on a Sunday and wish I had.

Anyone put any thought into it?
I doubt there's any sort of hidden variable involved at all. Compare PT to playing the actual OOTP game - in OOTP if you have a 5 star player, that player will more or less have a great year, year in and year out. One reason for that is there are fewer 5 star players in your typical OOTP league, so that player is going to have a more dominant year than most other players in the league.

Take that same 5 star player and place him in a PT perfect league, ours for instance. That player isn't going to have a great year every year because nearly every single player in the league is a 5 star player. Something's gotta give somewhere, all PT perfect league pitchers can't have a great year along with all PT perfect league batters also having a great year. It's just not possible.

At 77 years old and as wise/knowledgeable as he is, my dad is the king of not understanding this concept. Take any NFL ballgame on TV, every breath he says something like this, "I can't believe the receiver didn't make that catch, the defender barely touched him, he should've caught it and scored a touchdown. They're making millions of dollars to make that catch." He doesn't get/care that the defenders are also making millions of dollars to make sure that same receiver doesn't make the catch or score a touchdown.

Every card can't have a great season every season when each card on all 30 teams is basically the equivalent of an OOTP 5 star player.
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:44 PM   #7
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Every card can't have a great season every season when each card on all 30 teams is basically the equivalent of an OOTP 5 star player.
And this is exactly why you should rotate out those who are having bad seasons with cards from the reserve roster who might not be having the same poor season
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:50 PM   #8
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The devs have said there's nothing like this. Whether you choose to believe them is your call.

Ah, alright I wasn't aware of that. Certainly that is meaningful info!
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:58 PM   #9
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And this is exactly why you should rotate out those who are having bad seasons with cards from the reserve roster who might not be having the same poor season
Sure, maybe if you have identical quality cards on reserve. But if they're worse, you're more likely to get a good season out of the better card moving forward. To believe otherwise is only superstition, not science or math.
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:58 PM   #10
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I don't try to time the stock market. I invest for the long haul in blue chip stocks that pay a good, steady return. Maybe others can make a fortune day-trading and that's great if it works for them. I was never able to make that work. I always missed the ups and rode the downs. Every time I bought, the stock went down and every time I sold, the stock went up. Maybe I was just making bad decisions but, since I started (a long time ago) to invest and hold, I have done very well with my method. So I concluded that it was silly for me to try to manipulate that which I do not understand or control.

I have decided PT works the same way for me. I buy blue chip players and let them play. Your mileage may vary.
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:59 PM   #11
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I suppose the wide variance in outcomes for same-card players also made me wonder about this. If you've got 20 Mike Trout '18s in a league, some will hit .210, some will hit .290 in any given year. That's a ~30% difference in outcomes, based on over 600 plate appearances. How likely is that, statistically, if we were to assume a fully neutral environment? I honestly don't know how to do those calculations, so please if anyone does feel free to make me look like an idiot here...

Of course environments aren't fully neutral, so while some of that varience might be luck, some might be park factors or differing divisional competition in an unbalanced schedule... but seems like the swings are very wide to me, considering that parks are capped at 10% modification, and only effect you for half your games. Its harder to quantify competition variance -- though maybe someone has a good model for that.

Is there a general "slump" mechanic in OOTP, that (if not yearly) generates shorter periods of variable productivity?
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Old 03-08-2019, 01:02 PM   #12
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Quote:
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I suppose the wide variance in outcomes for same-card players also made me wonder about this. If you've got 20 Mike Trout '18s in a league, some will hit .210, some will hit .290 in any given year. That's a ~30% difference in outcomes, based on over 600 plate appearances. How likely is that, statistically, if we were to assume a fully neutral environment? I honestly don't know how to do those calculations, so please if anyone does feel free to make me look like an idiot here...

Of course environments aren't fully neutral, so while some of that varience might be luck, some might be park factors or differing divisional competition in an unbalanced schedule... but seems like the swings are very wide to me, considering that parks are capped at 10% modification, and only effect you for half your games. Its harder to quantify competition variance -- though maybe someone has a good model for that.

Is there a general "slump" mechanic in OOTP, that (if not yearly) generates shorter periods of variable productivity?
There is no slump mechanic. Every single event involving a player uses just the players ratings to determine the outcome. There is no hidden slump or hot streak feature.
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Old 03-08-2019, 01:09 PM   #13
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Seriously though, I swear I've seen others before on these boards talk about rotating in and out players like this.

Also, forget rotating cards in and out - I can't even afford proper platoons yet! (And my top players have been targeted with this in mind)
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Old 03-08-2019, 01:12 PM   #14
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I suppose the wide variance in outcomes for same-card players also made me wonder about this. If you've got 20 Mike Trout '18s in a league, some will hit .210, some will hit .290 in any given year. That's a ~30% difference in outcomes, based on over 600 plate appearances. How likely is that, statistically, if we were to assume a fully neutral environment?
The point I think your missing is that higher level competition has only one effect = down. These "superstars" in a normal a competitive environment will perform worse in PT. That much is a fact.

Combine that with a bad luck run and you have a slump that seems unlikely.
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Old 03-08-2019, 01:17 PM   #15
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I looked around on the internet, and found an article stating that if you were to flip a coin 1000 times, an occurrence of 550 heads or tails is like 99.7 percentile chance.

https://math.stackexchange.com/quest...oin-1000-times

I'm no math guy, but I think that's only a 10% deviation from the mean.

If Mike Trout was regularly hitting between .275 and .225 (in a fully neutral environment), seems like that would be remarkable, according to the math. Not sure it matters how good or bad the competition is, as long as its static.
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Old 03-08-2019, 01:19 PM   #16
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The point I think your missing is that higher level competition has only one effect = down. These "superstars" in a normal a competitive environment will perform worse in PT. That much is a fact.

Combine that with a bad luck run and you have a slump that seems unlikely.
Why does everyone always conflate lower performance with variance of performance? Both occur. It does not help to bring up one when we're trying to talk about the other.
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Old 03-08-2019, 01:30 PM   #17
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I looked around on the internet, and found an article stating that if you were to flip a coin 1000 times, an occurrence of 550 heads or tails is like 99.7 percentile chance.

https://math.stackexchange.com/quest...oin-1000-times

I'm no math guy, but I think that's only a 10% deviation from the mean.

If Mike Trout was regularly hitting between .275 and .225 (in a fully neutral environment), seems like that would be remarkable, according to the math. Not sure it matters how good or bad the competition is, as long as its static.
PT is not a coin flip.

If it were, consider Mike Trout to be heads and Perfect Pedro to be tails.

Now Trout might have a 75% chance of coming up heads because he's really good. And Pedro might have a 75% chance of coming up tails because he's really good. What happens when they face each other and they both have a 75% success chance?

They'll both underperform by 25% on average.
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Old 03-08-2019, 01:40 PM   #18
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Dogberry99, They're not exclusive.

Using BA as an example...

We're not talking about .500 being the average here, where there's as much chance of hitting 1.000 than there is of hitting .000.

The average BA is let's say .275. To get that average your averaging between .000 and .550 (in a fixed environment).

If the competition is greater, your restricting the higher end of that range - say to .450 - thus the average is now .225. This is the "lower performance" component.

The "variance component" is also effected. If your possibilities are now limited to .000 - .450, your Hot Streaks are shorter and your slumps are longer - because your constricted to a smaller (and lower) range of possibilities.
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Old 03-08-2019, 01:59 PM   #19
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20 live mike trouts even in the same league also arent all the same. different home ballparks. different player strategies. different spots in the order. different surrounding team talent. different pitchers in the division. add all that to natural variance and I'm not surprised at all you could get a range between .210 and .290 with most towards the middle.

now if every single mike trout in a league hit right at .275 with a .900 ops, THAT would be concerning

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Old 03-08-2019, 02:02 PM   #20
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20 live mike trouts even in the same league also arent all the same. different home ballparks. different player strategies. different spots in the order. different surrounding team talent. different pitchers in the division. add all that to natural variance and I'm not surprised at all you could get a range between .210 and .290 with most towards the middle.

now if every single mike trout in a league hit right at .275 with a .900 ops, THAT would be concerning
Exactly.
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