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OOTP 18 - General Discussions Everything about the 2017 version of Out of the Park Baseball - officially licensed by MLB.com and the MLBPA.

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Old 03-02-2018, 12:37 PM   #1
Timofmars
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Lineup and player value calculator

I have been using a spreadsheet I made to compare my players and set ideal lineups. It's really quite messy and full of notes and thoughts and random calculations I've done. Occasionally, some of those scattered calculations are used in important formulas, so don't delete anything just in case. You may need to be quite familiar with spreadsheets if you don't want to screw it up.

But I've found this sheet quite useful in taking the guesswork out of setting lineups and valuing pitchers. The part you may find useful are the sheets (check bottom left of the spreadsheet to find the different sheets or tabs) called RHP, LHP, Pitcher Data, and Raw Player data. Also don't delete any sheets, even sheet1 or sheet 2... Sorry.

This might not work as well for you if you make adjustments to your game, like recalcs and all that stuff. I made this based on just starting a new 2017 realistic game.

This is a OpenOffice Calc spreadsheet, not Excel, so I can be sure how compatible it is. But here it is:

http://www.mediafire.com/file/k2tcq5..._run_calcs.ods

-----------------------------------------------------How to use it-------------
The RHP sheet is data of batters taken from the Raw Player data sheet, and it will show the batters' values against righty pitchers. The LHP is the same, but using batter vs LHP data. These 2 sheets are divided into 2 parts. So I use the split screen thing to see both sections at the same time. The top section is just players and calculations based on their ratings that will give important info.

The only thing you should do here are 2 things. One is to select the whole section and sort by something when you need to. I recommend sorting by "On base minus HR per PA" in descending order. This is the player's expected OBP minus his chance of HRs (since this is used for finding his chance of being on base for the following batter, and HRs take him off the base). After sorting, you'll know that the top players are the most likely to be on base.

The 2nd thing to do on this page is change the batting order numbers on the top left. This will change the values in the section below that shows the lineup. These are the only things you should change unless you know what you are doing. You can play with that batting order numbers at the top to try to maximize the "Expected Runs" number in the bottom section.

To get your own player data into the spreadsheet, you need to go the the "raw player data" sheet and make your OOTP lineup screen look exactly the same as the columns I have on that page. Then I just click the "report" button in OOTP and open it in a web browsers, copy the data (not the report title though) and paste it in. If it doesn't paste over exactly, don't drag it into place because that will change the formulas on the RHP and LHP sheets. If you don't paste it correctly, just undo it. It's okay to delete data though.


For pitchers, both the raw data and the calculations are all on "Pitcher Data" sheet. Do the same thing there for pitchers. Paste your pitcher data exactly over mine. Then it will be reflected in the 2 data sections below that. Only work with the 3rd section there. You can sort that 3rd section by whatever you want. The main thing there is "runs against" which is expect number or runs given up over 1000 at bats (versus average ML batters). How accurate that is isn't the important bit. More important is just relative values of one pitcher versus another. Also note that SPs will usually look weaker than RPs because of the stuff bonus RPs get.



----------------Further info on what some numbers mean----------

Looking back at the top of the RHP sheet again, the first 3 calculated data columns are important. I have tried to determine the odds of each possible outcome of an at-bat for a player based on his ratings, and then have assigned values to those outcome. But a single for the batter is worth exactly as much as a walk, regarding himself only. But to a runner on 1st, a single is worth more than a walk since he could potentially get to 3rd on a single. And a walk is a bit useless to the runner if he is on 2nd with nobody on 1st. Because of this, I've made 2 different values for each batting outcome, 1 for runners, and 1 for batters.

So the column "Self-hitting value" shows the player's expected number of runs he would generate based on the value of the hit to himself only. Then there's a separate value "hitting in runners value" that shows the average value of his batting to a runner. And the column "self hitting + 0.6 * hitting runners" is the combined total of those 2 fields after multiplying the "runner" value by 0.6, since that is a rough estimate of the number of runners you see on base each at bat normally. So this combined column can be thought of as the total overall batting ability of the player.

Assuming you sorted the player by descending OBP, then your challenge is to get the best combination of overall batting ability (1st column after the player name) and highest on the list (highest OBP) into the lineup, with players with the highest "hitting in runners" value getting the most expected runners in the lineup below.

Or to put it very simply, get the "expected runs" value in the bottom part to be as high as possible.

Note, however, that I have not taken into account running speed, except for determining the frequency of triples. So you must decide how much speed matters to you.

Also, I haven't given any bonus for being higher in the order and thus having a slightly higher chance of getting an extra PA compared to a lower batter (though this shouldn't be too hard to add).

About lower part of the 2 sections, I have a "expected runners" field. This field looks at the previous 3 batters and calculates every permutation of possible outcomes they might have, include the change of a 3rd out wiping them off the field. But unlike most real-life sabermetric analysis that use league averages, my calculations use your player specifically.

I also calculate values for the 1st inning specifically, where you get extra value added to the 4th and 5 hitters because of more expected runners on base for them.

I also calculate the expected number of times you will go through the lineup based on how well your players can avoid outs, and that is also factored into how many runs you score.
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