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Old 04-04-2017, 03:39 PM   #1
aadam
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new rosters - getting extreme stats

I started a career with default OOTP 18 rosters, managing the Padres. I'm playing out every game. It's still early but in 12 games my run differential is 77-77, that's 6.41 R/G. League wide R/G is 4.74, BABIP is .305 (last year real life stats were 4.53 and .301 respectively).

Sale just recorded a 19-K game. Meanwhile, in my last game vs. Atlanta, my staff allowed 14 hits and 13 walks, their staff allowed 19 hits and 16 walks in 11 innings. That's 29 walks in a game (final score was 17-10).

The event of a single team allowing 13+ walks in a game has occurred 12 times since 2010, per fangraphs . A 29 walk game is impossible.
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Old 04-04-2017, 03:44 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aadam View Post
I started a career with default OOTP 18 rosters, managing the Padres. I'm playing out every game. It's still early but in 12 games my run differential is 77-77, that's 6.41 R/G. League wide R/G is 4.74, BABIP is .305 (last year real life stats were 4.53 and .301 respectively).

Sale just recorded a 19-K game. Meanwhile, in my last game vs. Atlanta, my staff allowed 14 hits and 13 walks, their staff allowed 19 hits and 16 walks in 11 innings. That's 29 walks in a game (final score was 17-10).

The event of a single team allowing 13+ walks in a game has occurred 12 times since 2010, per fangraphs . A 29 walk game is impossible.
Play out at least a full season before leaping to any conclusions. You can mess around with auto-calc to get whatever league wide run scoring environment you want (provided it has happened IRL).
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Old 04-04-2017, 03:46 PM   #3
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All that sounds too off is the walks in that one game.

What are your league-wide walk and K rates?

Have you adjusted the league total modifiers at all or done an auto-calc of the modifiers at all, even by accident? Could you maybe post a screen shot of the League Totals section in the settings.
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Old 04-04-2017, 04:04 PM   #4
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All that sounds too off is the walks in that one game.

What are your league-wide walk and K rates?

Have you adjusted the league total modifiers at all or done an auto-calc of the modifiers at all, even by accident? Could you maybe post a screen shot of the League Totals section in the settings.
Wow. BB modifier was set to 1.123 or something. I have no idea how. Restored defaults (everything at 1.00) . Is this how it's supposed to be for accurate stats?
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Old 04-04-2017, 06:47 PM   #5
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Wow. BB modifier was set to 1.123 or something. I have no idea how. Restored defaults (everything at 1.00) . Is this how it's supposed to be for accurate stats?
nope, don't worry about 1's

hit auto-calc on opening day for best results of that function. this will distribute those totals relative to current talent in teh league.

it essentially says, this "talent" is an average league. if you leave them there and it was a 'high' year, it can only go down, right? vice versa for a 'low' year in talent and common sense for anywhere in between.

so, choose to use it as you wish, but that's the dynamics of it. it's definiteyl better than 1.000's

the stuff not tied to a total does have an unseen value it will center around - it can be different depending on your league strategies (the stuff on the left side of that same screen, like bunting frequency). while there is volatility in one year, you can get a rough idea by perusing these things before moving on to the next season..

tweak what you want... but realize you may have a knee-jerk reaction to bad luck... e.g. say 5400 is the hr total and you see 6k... that's a very possible result given that total... don't believe you have to tweak it down just from one year....

now lets say it's been 5-10 and it's never been below 6k.. i'd probably agree with you that the hr LTM is too high, but we could still be wrong -- just to give an idea of how much info you actually need to make a good decision... (as of now 20-50 depending on the stat and hopefully they increase volatility in player creation a bit, because that's much smaller than in years past)

Last edited by NoOne; 04-04-2017 at 06:49 PM.
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Old 04-04-2017, 07:33 PM   #6
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I seem to have very high walk rates each time I play as the Royals

I've run 2 games and cannot get a starting pitcher to hold an ERA under 5, and most relievers as well. 4BB/9 is typical walk rates I am experiencing, which according to fangraphs is "awful"

thinking I was doing something wrong or just unlucky, I also simmed two additional seasons without even choosing a team to manage, and again Royals pitching staff is experiencing awful BB/9

none of these starting pitchers have control under 50 (average) so I would expect BB/9 to be closer to a 2.9-3.1 range. Ian Kennedy had a 4.5 bb/9, while fangraphs predictions show he should be closer to 2.9 or 3.0

also every season the Royals finish last in the central, with wins around 57 up to 65. even pecota didn't project them that low, but I would expect out of 4 seasons I would manage at least once to have somewhere around 81 wins

home run rates/9 innings for royals pitchers also seem a bit high, but not as extreme as the bb/9, so this may just be bad luck 4 seasons in a row

anyone else seeing high bb rates for either their own teams, or royals pitching in particular?

(after watching game 1 yesterday perhaps OOTP has it right after all, lol)
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Old 04-04-2017, 10:44 PM   #7
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you can't look at an individual game and make any conclusions, nor a player's season.

if bb/9 for the entire leauge is significantly higher compared to recent years in the mlb, then you might need to do something with the walks LTM in the settings. you should expect some fluctuation in a year's results, so be fairly forgiving of the results. if total walks are off by 10% or more acounting for scale, i'd look into it for sure. (bb/9 may not provide enough digits, but good enough for initial interest)

just hit autocalc occasionally for an easy fix.
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Old 04-05-2017, 08:39 AM   #8
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you can't look at an individual game and make any conclusions, nor a player's season.

if bb/9 for the entire leauge is significantly higher compared to recent years in the mlb, then you might need to do something with the walks LTM in the settings. you should expect some fluctuation in a year's results, so be fairly forgiving of the results. if total walks are off by 10% or more acounting for scale, i'd look into it for sure. (bb/9 may not provide enough digits, but good enough for initial interest)

just hit autocalc occasionally for an easy fix.
it wasn't just one players season. it was a whole team , and it was thru 4 seasons now. I just used kennedy as the example because it was 50% above projections.

there were a couple individual pitchers in those 4 seasons that had slightly better than average bb/9, but they had 65 control ratings, so that should be expected. what I did not see was any Royals pitcher have better than expected bb/9, but many had worse than expected.

I have yet to see danny duffy with an ERA below 4.50 in those 4 seasons. one season he ended up with something like 6.80.

I get that players can and will have bad seasons. what I am not seeing is Royals pitchers have good seasons as well. I don't know if ballpark factors could have something to do with this, or if the underlying ratings are just poorer than they seem, or if there is a bug. I just wanted to know, everyone else playing this game - out of all the hundreds of you, anyone seeing the opposite? anyone have the Royals make the playoffs in season 1? if its possible to be 15 games below projections, its also possible to be 15 games above, right?
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Old 04-05-2017, 09:09 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whoofe View Post
it wasn't just one players season. it was a whole team , and it was thru 4 seasons now. I just used kennedy as the example because it was 50% above projections.

there were a couple individual pitchers in those 4 seasons that had slightly better than average bb/9, but they had 65 control ratings, so that should be expected. what I did not see was any Royals pitcher have better than expected bb/9, but many had worse than expected.

I have yet to see danny duffy with an ERA below 4.50 in those 4 seasons. one season he ended up with something like 6.80.

I get that players can and will have bad seasons. what I am not seeing is Royals pitchers have good seasons as well. I don't know if ballpark factors could have something to do with this, or if the underlying ratings are just poorer than they seem, or if there is a bug. I just wanted to know, everyone else playing this game - out of all the hundreds of you, anyone seeing the opposite? anyone have the Royals make the playoffs in season 1? if its possible to be 15 games below projections, its also possible to be 15 games above, right?
Just ran a sim using the 2017 QS, here are the Royals team pitching stats:

Starters ERA: 4.87
Bullpen ERA: 4.83
Walks: 555
Strikeouts: 1281
Runs Allowed: 803
HR Allowed: 219
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Old 04-05-2017, 12:41 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhillieFever View Post
Just ran a sim using the 2017 QS, here are the Royals team pitching stats:

Starters ERA: 4.87
Bullpen ERA: 4.83
Walks: 555
Strikeouts: 1281
Runs Allowed: 803
HR Allowed: 219
2016 Actual Royals team pitching stats were:
Team ERA: 4.21
Walks 517
Strikeouts 1287
HR Allowed 206

Their overall pitching staff isn't better this year than last year, so
it looks like they did pretty well, all things considered.
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Old 04-05-2017, 04:11 PM   #11
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<snip by noone>
I get that players can and will have bad seasons. what I am not seeing is Royals pitchers have good seasons as well. I don't know if ballpark factors could have something to do with this, or if the underlying ratings are just poorer than they seem, or if there is a bug. I just wanted to know, everyone else playing this game - out of all the hundreds of you, anyone seeing the opposite? anyone have the Royals make the playoffs in season 1? if its possible to be 15 games below projections, its also possible to be 15 games above, right?
okay, hit auto-calc. that must have been missed above - reasonable in that mess, i admit.

and yes... if you can be lucky to be 15 over, you can be unlucky to be 15 down.... as far as it being an even distribution and same min max relative to mean etc.. that may or may not be true in real life, but it most likely is in the game. same with each individual stat in the game. individuals have significantly higher volatiity than league-wide #s.

i can't recall if that +/- is purely based on runs scored or takes into consideration rate of conversion of baserunners to runs etc... if the latter is true, then if you cause an inordinate amount of runners to be out relative to normal, that may influence it... you'd have to look up how it's calculated to be certain of what it tells you.

year-to-year league-wide stats get shifted by different players in the leaugue... if you always hit autocalc, they'll be ~near the totals for your league. as long as you hit auto-calc in a fairly average talent year, hitting auto-calc becomes more a preference or a function of some role-play, like league evolution.

Last edited by NoOne; 04-05-2017 at 04:13 PM.
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