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OOTP 15 - General Discussions Discuss the new 2014 version of Out of the Park Baseball here!

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Old 05-01-2014, 12:06 AM   #41
Syd Thrift
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The FanGraphs bit is interesting but I wonder how much of that is due to small sample size and specifically guys like Bryce "Clown Question" Harper and Mike "SHUT UP U SUCK I HATE ALL ANGELS" Trout pushing things out of whack. Even if you have this "peak in your rookie season, slow tail-off afterward" effect, there are still a couple things that might make a game sim still want to make it look like a regular curve:

- First and foremost, this is *only* coming after we've been able to quantify fielding a lot better now than we used to, and this is, as far as I can see, only WAR we're looking at. It's perfectly reasonable to expect fielding, speed, and to some extent BABIP* to start high and go down but power, avoiding strikeouts, and eye to have aging curves or maybe even (in the case of eye) to generally increase as a player gets older.

- Recent studies of NFL quarterbacks have shown that roughly 50% of a guy's decline comes in his final season. This skews aging curves because of something similar to the movie sequel effect: just as the last sequel of a movie franchise is almost by definition the least successful (because you get to a point where nobody, for instance, wants to make a Hangover IV after II and III flopped so bad, regardless of how good the script for IV might be), so is the last bad season for an NFL quarterback in his mid-30s almost by definition his last season, at least as a starter.

This hasn't been studied in baseball to my knowledge but I see no reason why it wouldn't apply. A 38 year old with a true ability of, say, a .280 average with 20 HRs and 80 walks in a full season who slumps to .230/15/70 (the average is still only 2 standard deviations from the norm, if memory serves; if you had 100 players with that ability, regardless of their age, you should expect ~5 to perform that poorly) will, likely as not, simply not get another chance to show that he's worth that much again. It's not that far above average in the first place, nobody in real life knows for sure whether the bad year was really a bad year or signs that a guy is "losing it", and chances are the team has someone in AAA who can fill in and provide, say, 80% of that level without skipping a beat.

Or even if he does get another chance, he's going to have a very short leash. If the guy follows that bad year with a slump in his next 50 or 100 at bats... well, a case could be made that that's exactly what happened to Mike Schmidt.

*I say to some extent because although there's definitely a correlation between BABIP and speed (see Ichiro and Rod Carew for two great examples) there are also guys who managed to keep their BABIPs high because they hit a lot of line drives or were just good at managing opposing pitching and defenses (see: Edgar Martinez and Wade Boggs, or Tony Gwynn in the second half of his career). If I were recreating the game I would probably base BABIP on two behind the scenes factors: speed and a hidden contact ability.

**********

I have this masochistic tendency to set aging modifiers fairly low (currently I'm using .500/1.000 for hitters and .350/1.100 for pitchers) and then making all the managerial decisions myself. YMM certainly V on that one. I will say that if you allow the AI to just play things out, you end up with too many ML-quality players, which in turn encourages it to platoon all over the place and actually drives down career stats, because even the top notch players will tend to only have 4 or 5 years as full-season starters. Bumping talent randomness way up may help ease that by, essentially, randomly dropping guys out of the league-ready talent pool, although then again it may actually make things worse as great players have nowhere to go but down and bad players have nowhere to go but up. I have mine set to just 110 at the moment in part due to that fear.
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Old 05-05-2014, 08:58 PM   #42
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Anyone else having trouble getting the modifiers right at this point? I've been looking at MLB roster data from the last five years and comparing that to MLB quickstart results after simulating for variable number of seasons and I just can't get the number of players in various age brackets to get within reconcilable ranges. For instance, even with aging modifiers set at .250 the number of players over the age of 35 is roughly half of what it should be compared to real world data in virtually ever test sim that I have done. No matter what I do it seems that players just disappear from the pool at an exaggerated rate starting in the mid 30's and beyond. I've tried slowing down prospect development in conjunction with slower aging, fiddling with injury rates and all sorts of combinations of modifiers all without even coming close. Can't say I've ever had this much trouble getting it right. Thoughts?
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Old 05-05-2014, 09:08 PM   #43
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It's possibly the ratings in the Quickstart rather than the development engine that is causing the quick exit of the elder statesmen. That and the fact that most prospects are probably overrated putting old players out of jobs quicker than they should.
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Old 01-23-2015, 12:22 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Questdog View Post
It's possibly the ratings in the Quickstart rather than the development engine that is causing the quick exit of the elder statesmen. That and the fact that most prospects are probably overrated putting old players out of jobs quicker than they should.
That would be the case, but if you look at the original post we started in 2013 I did studies simming over 100 years ahead with similar results. From the consensus on speaking with others the settings worked very well for OOTP 13 and 14. I never got around to seeing what happened with 15, but I know there are some people that are reporting it works well.

At the same time I know Markus tweaks it every year so no idea whether OOTP 15 and 16 have changed massively and the defaults work well now. As you clearly see though from Eskrap's charts the settings we came up with still work much better than the defaults and produce a more realistic aging spectrum than the defaults for 15.
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Old 03-27-2015, 08:58 AM   #45
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How are these settings for 16?
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Old 03-29-2015, 10:08 PM   #46
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After a year of everyone playing, what are the good numbers to use for a modern 2014-15 season.

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Old 03-31-2015, 04:02 PM   #47
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Anyone...please!
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