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Old 07-11-2017, 02:59 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by Danbo80 View Post
Is he not showing you? I understand its half a season, But the best half season by a rookie in a long time.
Rookies typically wear down. Bellinger is already showing signs of cooling off. We'll see if he can keep it up. I think he'll still do well, just not at this pace as he'll get tired. Then as he matures, we should see how his true self. He could be the greatest player ever or regress. He's a big guy and has to stay healthy. He could easily hurt himself by running into a wall and separate his shoulder (and destroy the wall) and never be the same again.
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Old 07-11-2017, 03:42 AM   #42
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I have an Indians franchise and I traded for Bellinger and on his 1st full season as an Indian he hit 51 HR's but struck out a lot too. Not bad.
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Old 07-11-2017, 10:09 AM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danbo80 View Post
Is he not showing you? I understand its half a season, But the best half season by a rookie in a long time.
Short and sweet: Exactly! due to small sample, you cannot know much for certain. ignoring all the possibilities but the positive ones is not rational.

--------

if you understand it's half a season, then you have answered your own question. if anyone brings up the hr-derby... <palm to face>

i am not saying anything specific about the guy, because it's unknown. if you want me to say "it's looking good" sure i can say that - i'd rather say it doesn't look bad, so far. it could go south at any moment and history says it likely will do that. it's far less likely he's a HoFer from these numbers, or even a slightly lesser player than that.

also, the required samples sizes applies to someone who is developed and a relatively consistent environment, not a young player no one has played against (unknown strats) or someone aging rapidly. i'm sure throwing out a range of initial ABs is a wise thing to do. which means it takes ~2-3 seasons for a young player to define themselves with stats, because those initial ABs aren't useful data, because it's adding oranges to apples and rational thought doesn't like that.

a young SP the first time through the league typically does very well, then not so much the 2nd, 3rd+ time etc playing those same teams. batters are no different. Eventually the league will find a pitch(es) and location(s) he struggles with and his numbers will likely drop precipitiously... then we will start to see the real player show their true colors -- good or bad -- as they learn to make constant adjustments to how he is being pitched. until that time, his data is not accurately representing his likely results.

"best rookie season in a long time" -- that's great and inconsequential to the evaluation. if you line up all the players that have great 1/2 season (whether rookie or any time - any 1/2 season time period is the comparison), you'll see it's not an uncommon thing for players to outperform their typical average for a short period of time. it's arbitrary 'when' it happens... also, a talented rookie has certain advantages that he will not have once the league is familiar with them. = doesn't say much. (still tied to sample sizes - no way around it)

i have 0 emotion invested in judge... could care less about him being great or a chump. if his ratings bump upto ~hof-quality, it's clearly because of the team he plays for and not any logical or rational reason... pure emotion and nonsense - a knee-jerk reaction. they haven't done this before with players i have noticed/pay attention to, but big-market teams have an overarching beneficial bias in many ways. lol, i remember when the pistons were dismantling the LA Lakers all-star team, the national media was stil s%#@!ing their d^^ks when down 2-1 and looking totaly dominated even in their lone win. that win required 2-3 bad calls by the refs in the last 2-3minutes, too (hmm think the league wanted la to win or what?). OotP Example: if jd martinez did what he did for the tigers in LA or NY, it wouldn't have taken so long for the ratings to rise to their current levels)

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Old 07-11-2017, 11:46 AM   #44
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It actually doesn't. The current rosters are set according to ZIPS to start and then we manually tweak the ratings when needed.

The historical db uses an algorithm based on the player's performance in a given year or series of years to set the ratings. So the ratings in the current roster and historical can be quite different.
This is interesting. So, if I understand this correctly, if I start a Reds career in 2016 using the historical database, Joey Votto's performance would be based off an algorithm of what he's already done, but if I start a Reds career in 2017 with current rosters, Votto's performance would be based off his ZIPS projection of what he's expected to do? Is that correct? I'm not complaining, I've just never fully understood how these things work and am trying to learn something. Thanks!
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Old 07-11-2017, 12:50 PM   #45
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Aaron Judge power should clearly be off the charts... he showed the world during the HR Derby, even the rest of so so called elites of HR we're completely put to shame....

His power, contact and eye are ELITE, and there's no indication he can drastically go down, if anything his eye will improve and he power will too for the next 2-3 years..For Judge it's just a matter of staying healthy, if he can achieve a full healthy season, then we;ll have a pretty good idea of how awesome this talent will be.
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Old 07-11-2017, 01:46 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danbo80 View Post
Is he not showing you? I understand its half a season, But the best half season by a rookie in a long time.
Well, we've all seen guys who had good years suddenly go into the tank for whatever reason whether it be injuries or something else.

It's impossible to say how great Judge may/may not be down the road but I'm leery of overhyping him as say the next Albert Pujols type hitter based off just a half season. If he maintains it throughout the entire season, my hat's off to him and he could be a great player over the next 5-8 seasons. I'll enjoy the crow for lunch and dinner

Kerry Wood (13-6, 233 K in 166.2 IP at age 21) and Mark Prior (18-6, 2.43 ERA at age 22) looked like future All-Stars and very probable Hall of Famers. Both got injured and their careers were derailed as a result. Injuries, off-season issues, a horrible slump, just too many variables that can impact how a guy's career turns out.

But I'm just leery of calling Judge a future star when he's already 25 and it's literally 111 games played at the MLB level thus far for his career. Maybe he is for real and we've all radically missed the boat but I'd rather err on the side of caution until we have at least a full season to look at.

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Old 07-11-2017, 02:12 PM   #47
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I think it's great what Judge is doing so far this season, and I am rooting for him to keep this up, but I am not going to jump on the bandwagon and say he is going to be the next great home run hitter. Anyone remember Kevin Maas or Bob Hamelin?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...amelbo01.shtml

If he keeps up this pace, then I am sure his ratings will be a lot better in next year's game. And if you want to make him better now, just use the editor, but I think he is rated pretty good as is based on the little sample size we have seen.
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Old 07-11-2017, 02:31 PM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by X3NEIZE View Post
Aaron Judge power should clearly be off the charts... he showed the world during the HR Derby, even the rest of so so called elites of HR we're completely put to shame....

His power, contact and eye are ELITE, and there's no indication he can drastically go down, if anything his eye will improve and he power will too for the next 2-3 years..For Judge it's just a matter of staying healthy, if he can achieve a full healthy season, then we;ll have a pretty good idea of how awesome this talent will be.
I respect Judge's talent and his performance this year but to suggest the HR Derby has anything to teach us about his ability is ridiculous. It's a manufactured exhibition no different than a carnival show.
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Old 07-11-2017, 02:36 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by DawnBTVS View Post
Well, we've all seen guys who had good years suddenly go into the tank for whatever reason whether it be injuries or something else.

It's impossible to say how great Judge may/may not be down the road but I'm leery of overhyping him as say the next Albert Pujols type hitter based off just a half season. If he maintains it throughout the entire season, my hat's off to him and he could be a great player over the next 5-8 seasons. I'll enjoy the crow for lunch and dinner

Kerry Wood (13-6, 233 K in 166.2 IP at age 21) and Mark Prior (18-6, 2.43 ERA at age 22) looked like future All-Stars and very probable Hall of Famers. Both got injured and their careers were derailed as a result. Injuries, off-season issues, a horrible slump, just too many variables that can impact how a guy's career turns out.

But I'm just leery of calling Judge a future star when he's already 25 and it's literally 111 games played at the MLB level thus far for his career. Maybe he is for real and we've all radically missed the boat but I'd rather err on the side of caution until we have at least a full season to look at.

What can you expect from over-zealous Yankee fans. Do you think this thread would have happened if he played for the Brewers?
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Old 07-11-2017, 03:13 PM   #50
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did y'all actually watch the home run derby? Not a Yankees fan at all but wow...that dude makes hitting homers look completely effortless. Balls that looked like popups off the bat were reaching the upper deck in Miami. I wasn't a believer before but am now.

Yeah it's an exhibition but he's playing by the same rules as the other contestants, and he made them look like the JV squad.

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Old 07-11-2017, 04:39 PM   #51
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What can you expect from over-zealous Yankee fans. Do you think this thread would have happened if he played for the Brewers?
No.
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Old 07-11-2017, 09:13 PM   #52
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What can you expect from over-zealous Yankee fans. Do you think this thread would have happened if he played for the Brewers?
Nobody would have even heard of his name before. People would bring up last season and say his ratings should probably be 40/55. I mean, the Brewers are in first place, nine games above .500, and people act like they are 4th in the NL Central at 40-51 instead of 51-40.
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Old 07-11-2017, 10:05 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by rlsimpson2 View Post
This is interesting. So, if I understand this correctly, if I start a Reds career in 2016 using the historical database, Joey Votto's performance would be based off an algorithm of what he's already done, but if I start a Reds career in 2017 with current rosters, Votto's performance would be based off his ZIPS projection of what he's expected to do? Is that correct? I'm not complaining, I've just never fully understood how these things work and am trying to learn something. Thanks!
Yes, that's correct!
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Old 07-12-2017, 11:01 AM   #54
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if they opened the field to the public, someone fromthe peanut gallery could win it each year...

just like the long-drive contests ... those guys aren't good golfers relative to a tour pro... no where near most the time. they may be ~scratch, but that's not a tour pro... maybe they are 'club' pros... you only need a 2-4hdcp and you'll easily qualifying most years (depends on field that year a bit). that's just a good golfer, not a real pro.

the skill set does not strongly correlate with ML success. the amount of time you get to react for a bp-pitch is light-years longer, figuratively speaking. a softball player friend of mine had a batting cage... we'd ramp that softball machine upto ~70mph which from that distance is ~90's at least relative to time to react.... it's a bit scary at first but with a melon being thown at you, you hit it quite often if you have a bit of coordination. i wouldn't say the same if it's moving around or being thrown be a real softball pitcher, even if it's <70mph from that shorter distance.

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Old 07-12-2017, 12:45 PM   #55
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Nobody would have even heard of his name before. People would bring up last season and say his ratings should probably be 40/55. I mean, the Brewers are in first place, nine games above .500, and people act like they are 4th in the NL Central at 40-51 instead of 51-40.
do you not recall April when everyone was hyping Thames...? But then he fell off the pace while Judge just kept hitting dingers.

This premise of "Yankee bias" with regards to Judge is really silly. Yes, he probably gets more media attention than warranted because of his home market. But at the all star break he's leading the league in WAR & OPS as a rookie. Kinda gotta give credit where it's due.
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Old 07-12-2017, 01:03 PM   #56
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It's funny how everybody talks about it like there hasn't been a rookie who has mashed like this in a long time...meanwhile his teammate, Gary Sanchez, destroyed opposing pitchers last season and was breaking all sorts of records too. Sanchez has still been fantastic this season, just not otherworldly. He had a 171 wRC+ in 2016 and this year is around 127.

Which is about what I'd expect to happen to Judge as well. He's not Barry Bonds, or Trout - which is to say it's highly unlikely he maintains his 197 wRC+. Not with a 426 BABIP - sorry, but over the last 5 years, the highest BABIP of any qualifying hitter is 366. And he won't maintain a 360 ISO - again, nobody of the past 5 years has been greater than 277. So while he's having a career year, and realistically he isn't anywhere near this good. Even if you drop his ISO down to 300 (making him the best slugger of the past 5 years), and drop his BA by 40 points based on the high BABIP (which would still have him as the highest BABIP of the past 5 years), that's a 100 point drop in his OPS.

ZIPS has his rest of season numbers at a 900 OPS/134 wRC+. I'd say true talent that's a pretty fair line, and makes a lot of sense as it's factoring in the ISO/BABIP drops that I mentioned above.

So enjoy the production and performance while he's hitting like this. It's pretty great to watch. Even when he regresses he'll still be a stud middle of the order bat.
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Old 07-12-2017, 03:57 PM   #57
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I respect Judge's talent and his performance this year but to suggest the HR Derby has anything to teach us about his ability is ridiculous. It's a manufactured exhibition no different than a carnival show.

Sure, but in that carnival show, it was Judge the one who shot four 500+ foot homers, no one else touched 500....
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Old 07-12-2017, 04:14 PM   #58
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Sure, but in that carnival show, it was Judge the one who shot four 500+ foot homers, no one else touched 500....
Some guy named Ryan Harvey hit one over 500 feet too in 2016 at The Trop.....Who, you ask? He’s a softball player. Balls are being thrown right over the plate at batting practice speeds. To see Harvey's shot, it's the 5th video in the link below.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/07/mlb-...stanton-videos
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Old 07-12-2017, 04:45 PM   #59
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I respect Judge's talent and his performance this year but to suggest the HR Derby has anything to teach us about his ability is ridiculous. It's a manufactured exhibition no different than a carnival show.
But it IS the best carnival show in town though!
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Old 07-13-2017, 04:02 PM   #60
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So I just started a new 2017 quickstart and simmed the first season to set me up to take over an expansion team. Of course...Judge won the 2017 MVP .277/47/127
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