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OOTP 20 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 03-28-2019, 06:55 AM   #1
DawnBTVS
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Park Factors and Historical Leagues

Hey

How do you guys handle the 'effect' of park factors in your historical league plays? I personally like to get them as realistic as possible but I'm torn after reading that they're basically designed to reflect the actual Run Environment in comparison to the League itself.

The flip side that irks me in that aspect though is the reflection of home runs, doubles, etc. Comparing a ballpark like the Baker Bowl with its extremely favorable LH fences against a ballpark like Fenway Park which has a much less favorable LH power hitting aspect and it would be great to see the actual ballparks be reflected in the game.

I tend to play a lot of Historical simulations in GM/God mode and let things fall where they may. I also like seeing somebody with average power get a boost from playing in a favorable Baker Bowl whereas somebody else with better power may struggle due to hitting in a heavier pitcher's park.

What are your thoughts? Do you try for realistic dimensions/park effects or just go with the run environment factor?
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Old 03-29-2019, 10:09 AM   #2
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To be honest I am not advanced enough to know how to answer your question.

What you are saying is that there is NO Park Effect in OOTP in historical leagues, so only the historical year's overall run environment is present?

That is disappointing if so, and renders my getting left hand hitters for the old Yankee Stadium somewhat symbolic only.

However, I can understand why that would be - Babe Ruth, or Henry Aaron hit in particular environments to rack up their career stats. Put THOSE actual lifetime stats in that same ballpark effect and you are doubling down on one of the factors that produced the original result. So you would actually have a less, not a more, realistic career for Ruth or Aaron or anyone else.

Maybe Marcus or Lukas (spelling? sorry, I am tired today from extra-long days at work this week) can clarify this for us.
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Old 03-29-2019, 03:53 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by italyprof View Post
To be honest I am not advanced enough to know how to answer your question.

What you are saying is that there is NO Park Effect in OOTP in historical leagues, so only the historical year's overall run environment is present?

That is disappointing if so, and renders my getting left hand hitters for the old Yankee Stadium somewhat symbolic only.

However, I can understand why that would be - Babe Ruth, or Henry Aaron hit in particular environments to rack up their career stats. Put THOSE actual lifetime stats in that same ballpark effect and you are doubling down on one of the factors that produced the original result. So you would actually have a less, not a more, realistic career for Ruth or Aaron or anyone else.

Maybe Marcus or Lukas (spelling? sorry, I am tired today from extra-long days at work this week) can clarify this for us.
Yeah, that's what I'm saying.

OOTP Example: 1949 Red Sox has Fenway Park at 1.128 for BA and HR (league started in 1948). Yankee Stadium for comparison is set at 0.930 for BA and HR.

But everybody knows the disparity between the two ballparks in real life e.g. trading DiMaggio for Williams and why the "opposite" park would've aided them each more. I'd even be grateful if the OOTP team could just do a "general" park factor adjusting for the fence distances/wall heights rather than needing to be 100% legitimate if it meant closely mimicking the real life park effects. Otherwise it's pointless to have "park factors" if it's just deciding which park is more advantageous to runs ignoring XBH or HR or LH/RH hitting.

Example: Fenway Park RH due to the Green Monster becomes 1.158 for Doubles and 1.070 for RH HR but due to the distance/configuration it makes LH HR just a 0.959 or whatever without trying to factor in the actual player stats and just judging based on distance/wall height.

Last edited by DawnBTVS; 03-29-2019 at 03:57 PM.
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Old 03-30-2019, 09:36 AM   #4
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Park factors are nothing more than Part of an equation for League Totals and Modifiers. One thing to consider is that a general rule is,Player ratings don't create the Stats, League Totals and Modifiers do. Player ratings distribute the Stats.


So when a Stadium has a LHB HR Modifier of 1.20 you can expect there to be approx. 20% More LHB Homers than would normally be hit in that park during the season in question. The Era and actual Stats produced for any given Season are the Basis for the calculations, without that it would be impossible to determine the Starting Point for the equation. It is NEVER based on Individual Player Stats, Only on League Totals and/or Totals in a selected Park compared across the League average


While setting Players up with player creation "Base Current Ratings on neutralized Stats" is supposed to put everyone on a level playing field as far as Era's are concerned, I Don't believe it works as well as we'd hoped it would. Or maybe even at all for that matter, I haven't heard any new news on that lately
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Old 03-30-2019, 06:22 PM   #5
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Thanks both of you for the further explanations. Yes, it is kind of sad to think that right handers in Fenway and left-handers in Yankee Stadium don't have an advantage. But I now understand why that is, at least as the system is currently written.

PainMantle I asked about neutral stats and whether they were fixed when the Beta version of 20 came out, and I think Lukas said he would look into it, but I have not heard back (sorry, if I have confused which person from the OOTP team wrote that, but it was a while back and I have had a long week).
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Old 03-31-2019, 05:03 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Painmantle View Post
Park factors are nothing more than Part of an equation for League Totals and Modifiers. One thing to consider is that a general rule is,Player ratings don't create the Stats, League Totals and Modifiers do. Player ratings distribute the Stats.


So when a Stadium has a LHB HR Modifier of 1.20 you can expect there to be approx. 20% More LHB Homers than would normally be hit in that park during the season in question. The Era and actual Stats produced for any given Season are the Basis for the calculations, without that it would be impossible to determine the Starting Point for the equation. It is NEVER based on Individual Player Stats, Only on League Totals and/or Totals in a selected Park compared across the League average


While setting Players up with player creation "Base Current Ratings on neutralized Stats" is supposed to put everyone on a level playing field as far as Era's are concerned, I Don't believe it works as well as we'd hoped it would. Or maybe even at all for that matter, I haven't heard any new news on that lately
Good explanation, thanks.

One thing that still would bug me though is why have both RH and LH be the same number? Obviously it's to properly reflect that the ballpark itself would be say 20% more likely to have a HR hit there than another but that seems to counter intuitively reflect that the RH vs. LH aspect isn't equal mostly due to park layout and/or talent level.

Just looking at Fenway Park 2018 for R/HR/LH HR/RH HR: 1.087 (4)/0.881 (25)/0.732 (29)/1.007 (14)

Adjusted for the 2018 MLB, Fenway Park would expect 12% fewer HRs and OOTP would plop down 0.88 for LH and RH HR. The issue when digging deeper is the disparity due to the park layout and how it's actually league average for RH but one of the worst parks for LH hitters.

Yet if you were to play out a season in OOTP, this disparity wouldn't properly be reflected. So Player X may hit 12% fewer HR but as a RH hitter, he should realistically be expected to hit closer to an average number with maybe 2% variance whereas a LH hitter would actually be hitting possibly a higher total than expected.
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Old 03-31-2019, 08:54 AM   #7
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The park factors were calculated from retrosheet data for every park every season from 1871 to present. I created the original file and the calculator to generate the factors. This was a very big project. Pstrickert has been using the calculator to update the file these past few seasons (thank you Pstrickert). The factors are based on 3 seasons of data. If a park generated say 14% more offense than the other parks in the league, then using the quadratic formula we are able to find a value for both BA and HR that generates that result, and this depends on how teams were scoring in a given season based on HR/2B/3B from the league stat totals for every season. The BA factor affects 2B and 3B as well so that's why those stay at 1.000 in the file. Retrosheet does not have the L/R data for ballparks so that's why those are the same for both sets of values.

Keep in mind that what you are arguing probably doesn't affect any individual player's HR totals for Home vs Road by more than 1 or 2 in a season. For example, you mention 12% fewer HR. If your player in question has 40 HRs for the season, and roughly 20 at home, that 12% becomes about 2-3 HR that get redistributed to road vs home. But the file itself is fairly subtle in terms of the factors because if you increase BA/2B/3B/HR by say 5% your scoring will probably increase more than 10%.

I am not understanding what you are saying about the 2018 factors for Fenway Park. Both BA and HR should be 1.03056 according to the file. Over the 2017-2018 seasons there was 5.24% more offense at Fenway than on the road and the 1.03056 factor is designed to recreate that in the game as best as possible.
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Old 03-31-2019, 01:00 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Garlon View Post
The park factors were calculated from retrosheet data for every park every season from 1871 to present. I created the original file and the calculator to generate the factors. This was a very big project. Pstrickert has been using the calculator to update the file these past few seasons (thank you Pstrickert). The factors are based on 3 seasons of data. If a park generated say 14% more offense than the other parks in the league, then using the quadratic formula we are able to find a value for both BA and HR that generates that result, and this depends on how teams were scoring in a given season based on HR/2B/3B from the league stat totals for every season. The BA factor affects 2B and 3B as well so that's why those stay at 1.000 in the file. Retrosheet does not have the L/R data for ballparks so that's why those are the same for both sets of values.

Keep in mind that what you are arguing probably doesn't affect any individual player's HR totals for Home vs Road by more than 1 or 2 in a season. For example, you mention 12% fewer HR. If your player in question has 40 HRs for the season, and roughly 20 at home, that 12% becomes about 2-3 HR that get redistributed to road vs home. But the file itself is fairly subtle in terms of the factors because if you increase BA/2B/3B/HR by say 5% your scoring will probably increase more than 10%.

I am not understanding what you are saying about the 2018 factors for Fenway Park. Both BA and HR should be 1.03056 according to the file. Over the 2017-2018 seasons there was 5.24% more offense at Fenway than on the road and the 1.03056 factor is designed to recreate that in the game as best as possible.
Grateful for this post especially the 2B/3B aspect. The Fenway Park numbers I got from ESPN's Park Factors page for 2018 just as a cursory example but they reflected what has long been a known aspect of hitting at that ballpark, namely that it's easier for RHH than LHH in terms of power.

If you've been going off Retrosheet (love that site btw), are there any future plans to try and incorporate LH vs. RH if they become available? I know it's probably more of a minor cosmetic thing in a long run but I've always liked the concept of playing OOTP History out and seeing somebody like a Willie Mays calling Fenway Park home instead of Candlestick Park and how that effects his numbers.

It may not matter a ton e.g. Mays ends up with maybe just 1-3 more HR a year than irl but it would be nice to build a team around a park above & beyond just whether it's more run favorable or run depressed.
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Old 03-31-2019, 03:21 PM   #9
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There are 2896 parks in the file. It is too much work to do this project over again even if new data was available. I had made a file once that used the actual 2B/3B/HR values from the retrosheet data. At the time I did that the data for that stuff went to about 1920. I think that they have some additional years now. One problem with using the discrete data for the HR factors is when you get into eras when there were very few HRs in the league. You start to get very big or small values and you are not really measuring anything about the park but rather just seeing the effect of randomness. I ultimately did not like how the file played with the game. I may have a copy of it somewhere, but I don't think it is worth using.
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Old 03-31-2019, 06:16 PM   #10
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Thanks for all the hard work Garlon.
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Old 03-31-2019, 07:52 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DawnBTVS View Post

Example: Fenway Park RH due to the Green Monster becomes 1.158 for Doubles and 1.070 for RH HR but due to the distance/configuration it makes LH HR just a 0.959 or whatever without trying to factor in the actual player stats and just judging based on distance/wall height.
Park factors are post facto based on actual results. Not sure what you think it should be other wise. In other words a park that allows 15% more HR for RHB would have a HR PF for RHB of 1.15. Distance and wall height are inconsequential.

Did I misunderstand what you said?

One important point is that park factors should always be one season before the the year played. The PF for 2019 won't be available until the end of the season.
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Old 04-01-2019, 02:23 AM   #12
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Park factors are post facto based on actual results. Not sure what you think it should be other wise. In other words a park that allows 15% more HR for RHB would have a HR PF for RHB of 1.15. Distance and wall height are inconsequential.

Did I misunderstand what you said?

One important point is that park factors should always be one season before the the year played. The PF for 2019 won't be available until the end of the season.
DawnVTBS is saying that the effects take now account of whether batters are RH or LH, which obviously in parks like Yankee Stadium and Fenway matter a great deal. It probably isn't possible to change that, but in your example being RH is taken into account but it is not in fact in the game, only the overall effect for all batters regardless of LH or RH. So if you play in Fenway or Yankee with your team as home field, it is pointless to get a lot of left hand or right hand hitters, though in RL this would matter a great deal to you.

Again, I understand Garlon's point - it is a LOT of work already to have included park effects, so including the handedness of batters would require a mountain of research using data that we may not even have available yet. But that is the point being made.
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Old 04-01-2019, 12:33 PM   #13
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Excellent discussion and it correct some of my misconception about Park factors and OOTP. Thank You.
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Old 04-02-2019, 04:41 AM   #14
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Quote:
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DawnVTBS is saying that the effects take now account of whether batters are RH or LH, which obviously in parks like Yankee Stadium and Fenway matter a great deal. It probably isn't possible to change that, but in your example being RH is taken into account but it is not in fact in the game, only the overall effect for all batters regardless of LH or RH. So if you play in Fenway or Yankee with your team as home field, it is pointless to get a lot of left hand or right hand hitters, though in RL this would matter a great deal to you.

Again, I understand Garlon's point - it is a LOT of work already to have included park effects, so including the handedness of batters would require a mountain of research using data that we may not even have available yet. But that is the point being made.
Pretty much this.

I love the immersion of OOTP and appreciate Garlon's hard work. But I do sometimes find immersion tougher when a ballpark doesn't quite reflect the pro or con of acquiring a specific talent based on which side they hit from.

An interesting example would be Babe Ruth. People don't realize how advantageous Yankee Stadium was for Ruth as a LH hitter: http://www.andrewclem.com/Baseball/Y...dium.html#diag take a look at the 1928 image and RF is only 350, the line is just 295(!) To mentally picture that, the Green Monster is anywhere from 305 to 310 feet away.

http://www.andrewclem.com/Baseball/S...Park.html#diag Sportsman's Park was a notoriously favorable hitter's park for extra bases and the deep fences for RH hitters was a reason why Rogers Hornsby had so many doubles and triples.

With a general BA or HR factor for both sides, as a GM or even a Manager, you kind of lose that 'ballpark' uniqueness. If you were playing at Dodger Stadium and transplanted Mike Piazza to say Comiskey Park, you'd have a reasonable expectation that Piazza could top 40+ HR a year given the splits from https://legacy.baseballprospectus.co...hp?cid=1852061 even over a 3 year average.
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Old 04-02-2019, 11:28 AM   #15
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Here is some data from Sportsmans Park 1921-1925

There were 3805 runs scored in 386 games at Sportsmans Park while there were 3927 runs scored in 383 games on the road. This is the data both for the Cardinals and their opponents in those seasons. At home there was an average of 9.857 runs scored at Sportsmans Park and 10.253 on the road. Dividing the home by the road we get 9.857/10.253 = .961 So Sportsmans Park had about 3.9% fewer runs scored per game than on the road. So in OOTP we need to find a single value to apply to BA/2B/3B/HR to recreate this. This comes out to an average of .977 for those seasons. So by applying this factor in the game the idea is to recreate this scoring environment as best as possible. So notice that a 2.3% decrease in all offensive values equates in theory to a 3.9% decrease in scoring based on how runs were created from offensive values that season.

Ok, now let's look at discrete data of 2B and 3B. In Sportsmans Park from 1921-1925 there were 1712 2B and 3B over approximately 24378 balls in play (AB - K - HR) while on the road there was 1654 2B and 3B over approximately 24112 balls in play. 1712/24378 = .0702 for the home value and 1654/24112 =.0685 for the road value. Now we divide the home by the road and we get .0702/.0685 =1.0248 Ok, so we can say that Sportmans Park increased 2B and 3B by 2.48%.

So you're not wrong that Sportsmans Park was increasing 2B and 3B, but it was only by about 2%. Hornsby had about 60 2B and 3B during those seasons. A perfect home/road division comes out to about 30 at home and 30 on the road. The discrete data suggests it was more like 31 at home and 29 on the road (it's actually more like 30.48 at home and 29.52 on the road), whereas my park calculations has this the other way around.

My point here is that the affects of ballparks are generally overstated. Certainly Sportsmans Park was bigger, but the outfielders knew this and perhaps played deeper so that not as many gappers got through. The data just doesn't suggest that there was a huge advantage for 2B and 3B in that stadium.
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Old 04-03-2019, 06:03 PM   #16
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Thanks for the correction, Garlon.

With that said, Roger Hornsby's 2B and 3B were 8.4% of his PA at Sportsman's Park (keeping in mind that he hit there the majority of his career outside of 5 seasons at the end of his full time career). Compare that to other ballparks he hit in.

Sportsman's Park: 8.4%
Robison Field: 6.7%
Cubs Park: 6.9%
Polo Grounds: 6.1%
Braves Field: 7.7%
Baker Bowl: 8.0%
Ebbets Field: 7.4%

That doesn't look like a big difference but it's also pretty clear that Hornsby, as a right handed hitter, took advantage of Sportsman's Park and the propensity for extra bases. That is largely what seems to be missing from OOTP's Historical Leagues especially if every ballpark treats 2B/3B as a league average 1.000 number.

So giving him 308 AB for Sportsman's Park = roughly 26 2B and 3B. Compare that to just 21 at a Robison Field or 23 at Ebbets Field doesn't sound like a big difference but it adds up in BA, OBP, SLG, and career wise.

Over a 12 year run that equates to 312 at Sportsman's Park against 252 (Robison Field) or 276 (Ebbets Field).

Babe Ruth at Yankee Stadium is another extreme example of how ballparks did effect the importance of RH vs. LH but that aspect isn't quite carried over into OOTP which does hurt historical league play through IMO.

He hit 7.1% of his HR per PA at Yankee Stadium compared to a miserable 3.9% at Fenway Park. Even at the Polo Grounds and Navin Field, he hit well over 7.7% of his HR per PA. Keep Ruth in Fenway Park and he doesn't come close to his total career HR numbers because he hit LH in a park that was and still is incredibly tough on power hitting LH.
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Old 04-03-2019, 07:07 PM   #17
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What Hornsby and Ruth do are one thing but what everyone does is another.

A better way to look at this might be (2B+3B)/(H - HR). Baseball Reference has some data for this after 1925. In Sportsman's Park this value for him was 28% and in other parks it was 26% for his career.

28/(28+26) = 28/54 = 51.85%. Hornsby happened to hit for a much higher average at home, so yes he had more 2B and 3B there but the rate at which he was getting them against his singles were really nearly the same as on the road.

The Park Factors are of course not based on these single players but all of the players.

The 1.000 2B and 3B factors really are getting modified by the BA factor though. Before I made the park factors I asked Markus if I raise BA by 5% will that raise 2B and 3B by 5% if I keep that at 1.000 and the answer was yes. So If I make the BA factor 1.05 and the 2B factor 1.05, then doubles are getting raised 1.05*1.05 = 1.1025 because these values will be getting multiplied together and the 2B factor will be saying that a larger percentage of the BA will be 2B.

So if you want a purely component set of ballpark factors it can be created and it will be a ton of work. I will see if I still have the one I made. My file used the component factors were available and for the very early years it was the quadratic factors since the data for components was not available.

I don't really believe that you can use a park to engineer a better ballclub. The effects of the parks are relatively small and even if you were to use them to your advantage you'd only be creating a great team when they played home games.
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Old 04-03-2019, 07:25 PM   #18
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Here is the discrete ballpark factors file that I had made. It has the discrete factors you want from 1915-2012. I made the file after the 2012 season. I added the quadratic factors for 2013-2018 to the file so that it is more complete. For 1871-1914 the discrete data was not available when I made the calculations so those stadiums have the quadratic values as well.

To use this file you need to go to the OOTP Baseball 20 folder in My Documents, then go to the database subfolder and you will see a file named era_ballparks. This is a txt file. You do not want to overwrite this original file so just rename it something like era_ballparksorig or make a copy of the file and save it somewhere else. Now take this file that I have attached and place it in the folder and rename it era_ballparks instead of era_ballparks_beta2012 and the game will then use these park factors.
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File Type: txt era_ballparks_discrete_beta2012.txt (474.1 KB, 40 views)

Last edited by Garlon; 04-03-2019 at 08:35 PM.
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Old 04-04-2019, 03:05 AM   #19
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Here is the discrete ballpark factors file that I had made. It has the discrete factors you want from 1915-2012. I made the file after the 2012 season. I added the quadratic factors for 2013-2018 to the file so that it is more complete. For 1871-1914 the discrete data was not available when I made the calculations so those stadiums have the quadratic values as well.

To use this file you need to go to the OOTP Baseball 20 folder in My Documents, then go to the database subfolder and you will see a file named era_ballparks. This is a txt file. You do not want to overwrite this original file so just rename it something like era_ballparksorig or make a copy of the file and save it somewhere else. Now take this file that I have attached and place it in the folder and rename it era_ballparks instead of era_ballparks_beta2012 and the game will then use these park factors.
Awesome, thanks. Sorry if I came off overly argumentative over this all or nitpicky about effects that may not matter at all but I find the intricacies of baseball parks fascinating compared to most other sports since they all have such a uniqueness to them compared to say NFL Stadiums or NHL Arenas.

Appreciate the discussion/posts from you though, Garlon!
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Old 04-04-2019, 08:55 AM   #20
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Garlon, you have put a heck of a lot of work into this game. I and everyone else appreciate it.
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