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Old 08-27-2009, 12:49 PM   #1
ACESFAN 1
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Comments on My League

I just wanted to comment on the season I am playing. I am replaying the 1961 season and managing the Yankees. It is now the middle of July and Mantle jut hit HR # 18 and Maris is at 13. Meanwhile Rocky Colavito is leading the AL with 24. I would have thought that the M and M boys would run a little closer to their real like stats, any comments ?
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Old 08-27-2009, 05:14 PM   #2
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Statistical probability tells you that the range of possible outcomes during a season for an individual player is quite wide -- wider than many people apparently think possible. A .250 hitter can easily have a .225 season or a .275 season. Or anything in between. It's the same with HRs or anything else.
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Old 08-28-2009, 02:25 PM   #3
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Are you using 3-year recalc? '59-'61, Mantle's HR totals were 40-54-30 and Maris's were 39-61-33. With recalc, the middle year is likely to fall closer to the average of the three as I understand it.

Real-life Maris himself is evidence of how much seasonal variability there can be.
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Old 08-28-2009, 02:49 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by risp2out View Post
Are you using 3-year recalc? '59-'61, Mantle's HR totals were 40-54-30 and Maris's were 39-61-33. With recalc, the middle year is likely to fall closer to the average of the three as I understand it.

Real-life Maris himself is evidence of how much seasonal variability there can be.
I guess not how do I do that ?
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Old 08-29-2009, 01:37 AM   #5
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Game>Game Setup>League Setup>Options

There, you will see the option to use recalc and a choice as to whether you want to base the recalc on a 1-, 3-, or 5-year basis. If you choose 3 or 5, you also have the choice to double the value of the current year stats. So, to potentially get more from Maris in '61, you could choose 1-year recalc or double the value of '61 while maintaining a 3- or 5-year basis overall.

A more experienced historical simmer might be able to give you more depth of explanation, but that's something you can play around with anyway.
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Old 08-29-2009, 03:58 AM   #6
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Thank you for that tip I went and did the recalc and just finished playing a game and results were much better. In my league it is now the middle of August and the YANKEES are on a 7 game winning streak and trail the first place TWINS by only 5 games, thank heavens for the 162 game schedule that started in 1961. Oh bye the way when I changed the settings it was at 3 and I upped it to 5.

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Old 08-29-2009, 08:40 AM   #7
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Thank you for that tip I went and did the recalc and just finished playing a game and results were much better. In my league it is now the middle of August and the YANKEES are on a 7 game winning streak and trail the first place TWINS by only 5 games, thank heavens for the 162 game schedule that started in 1961. Oh bye the way when I changed the settings it was at 3 and I upped it to 5.
I haven't done it yet, but it would be interesting to run a season with recalc set at each of the three different levels and with it off and compare the results. Something tells me that a search on the forums might reveal that someone has done such an experiment (although, I don't know if anyone has with X yet.)
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