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OOTP 14 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 07-04-2013, 07:17 AM   #61
VanillaGorilla
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Class of 2053, Veterans Committe Selections: Yost, McGraw, Trout

After nearly a decade's worth of silence, the Veterans Committee names 3 players to the converted tractor shed, which is this HOF. All three players named by the Veterans Committee enter the HOF older than any previous entrant at the time of his induction.

-----------------------------------------------------

Eddie Yost recently left our real world, but today he gives his acceptance speech for the OOTP HOF (3rd edition).

Yost was selected in the 16th rd (pick 457) as a 19 year-old in the Inaugural draft of 2004 by the Reds.

"The Walking Man" lived up to his moniker as he drew 1560 walks in his career, 3rd most behind Barry Bonds and Mickey Mantle (and ahead of Chipper Jones). Not bad company.

Yost also would take one for the team, getting drilled 225 times in his career. These times on base, added to his .266 career BA, gave him a career OBP of .396. That places him 34th on the all-time list, again one spot ahead of Chipper Jones.

Yost slugged .415 in his career and finished with a npa OPS+ of 121.

He retired with a real cool looking 2222 hits (50th, one spot ahead of Mickey Mantle) and 232 HRs. He hit 465 doubles (51st, one spot ahead of Rico Petrocelli), scored 1279 times (41st) and collected 1080 RBI.

Yost enters as yet another 3Bman. He won a Gold Glove at that position and also appeared in one All Star game. His AS appearance came in 2009 when he posted personal highs in all slash categories (294/426/496, npa OPS+ 149).

Yost retired following the 2024 season. He enters the Hall at the age of 68.

Black Ink: 7 (20)
Gray Ink: 53 (74)
HOFm: 14 (38)
HOFs: 45 (29)

Gorilla Composite: 1.7 (2.1)

--------------------------------------------

For the purposes of the construction of this HOF, John McGraw's RL HOF entry is considered to be as a manager. It is a close call, but it is how I chose to have him and base the results. I won't change the basis midstream, but I may be convinced to add him to the basis calculations as a player in a future run-through.

The Vet Committee goes the Saberhead route, again, by dubbing McGraw as an oversight of the writers. I don't blame the writers. This is just the type of induction the Vet Committee would make.

John J McGraw was selected as a 27 year-old by the Cardinals with the 12th overall pick of the Inaugural Draft.

McGraw played through the 2014 season. Over those years he posted a career slash line of 267/423/355 for a npa OPS+ of 117. He is 4th on the career OBP list. Billy Hamilton is second with a a .4409 which puts him .0001 behind leader Mickey Mantle. Hanilton suffered a CEI before he reached 10 years of service time and will not be entering the HOF.

McGraw collected 1096 hits in his abbreviated career. However, in 2007, he did win the WS on a squad that included previous HOF inductees Lou Galvin, Ken McMullen and Ben Tincup. McGraw made his only All Star appearance in that 2007 season.

At the age of 76 years 204 days, McGraw is the oldest player to give an acceptance speech. The 39 years from the time of his retirement to his induction is also the longest in this HOF's history.

McGraw enters as, yep, a third baseman.

Black Ink: 7 (10)
Gray Ink: 25 (50)
HOFm: 14.5 (62)
HOFs: 29 (41)

Gorilla Composite 1.1 (2.0)

--------------------------------------

It's kind of funny to picture Mike Trout entering through the Veterans Committee, but he is the youngest of their three selections.

Mike Trout was drafted second overall by the Orioles in the 2004 amateur draft. A .308 average, 38 HRs and what would be a career high 124 RBI secured the scouting staff's tenure and secured Trout Rookie of the Year.

In 2006, Trout bested his ROY output by batting .335 and hitting 39 HRs. Fellow HOFer John H Murphy won 23 games for those Orioles to take care of the pitching end of things as the Orioles won the World Series. Trout hit .355 during that post seson and batted .345 with 12 HR in 47 career post season games.

Trout sought his fortune as a free agent, but after 12 years away from Camden Yard, he returned in 2023 to bring home another WS to the O's. Previous inductees Chipper Jones and Jackie Robinson were on that squad (I was wrong twice, now, in saying Jones would be the only HOFer from the 2023 team).

Trout had an injury riddled career. He also sat out the 2020-2022 seasons when he was not offered enough money to play. Only 6 times did he play in 100 games.

When he did play, he was great. In 2008 he won the Barry Bonds Balko Best Batter Award by slashing 351/426/709 (npa OPS+ 194) for his highest slg% of his career. He belted 41 HRs and drove in 101 in only 113 games.

For his career Trout collected 1740 hits and a cool looking 333 HRs. He also hit 279 doubles and 59 triples (49th). He scored on 800 other occasions than his HRs, 1133 total (78th). He drove in 979 and stole 369 bases (25th). His career slash line of 283/373/510 is good for a npa OPS+ of 132.

A 5 time All-Star, Trout won 4 Gold Gloves in CF. It is as a cfer that he enters the HOF, at age 66.

Black Ink: 3
Gray Ink: 62
HOFm: 90
HOFs: 44

Gorilla Composite: (2.0)

Last edited by VanillaGorilla; 07-16-2013 at 07:58 AM. Reason: year correction
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Old 07-04-2013, 03:16 PM   #62
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Class of 2053, VBBWAA Selections, Part 1: Canseco, Rollins, Watson

Jose Canseco was the 20th overall selection in the 2024 draft, chosen by the Red Sox.

He played through the 2043 season and slugged 660 HRs (say, "Hey!"), but did not get an immediate induction. Why? I guess because his name is Jose Canseco. The model, once again, imitates life.

Jose is a colorful chap and his career here is certainly deserving of enshrinement and the HOF is a livelier place with his presence.

Yes, his total of 660 HR is aMaysing (sorry). It ranks him 8th on the career list between Duke Snider and Chipper Jones.

He collected 1591 RBI (17th, 1 behind Mickey Mantle) and scored 1358 runs (28th, 1 place ahead of Joe Torre). He had 1957 base hits (89th) and stole 144 bases (a career high of 27 for a season...no 40-40, here).

He hit 50, or more, HR 5 times in his career, leading the league 3 times.

In his sophomore season of 2026 he posted career highs with 63 HR, 149 RBI, a .317 BA, and a .737 slg% which gave him a career best OPS of 1.105 and a career high npa OPS+ of 184. This was good enough to win him the MVP.

For his career he slashed 277/357/602, which makes for a npa OPS+ of 153.

He ranks 15th on the career slg list, one spot ahead of Willie Stargell, and 30th on the career OPS list, one spot behind Sam Crawford.

Canseco never won a WS. In his rookie season he hit 6 HR and collected 18 RBI in 10 post season games.

A 7 time All Star, Canseco enters the HOF at the age of 47 with one Gold Glove in his trophy case.

Black Ink: 15 (15)
Gray Ink: 110 (93)
HOFm: 184.5 (103)
HOFs: 50 (39)

Gorilla Composite: 3.5 (2.7)

-------------------------------------------------

Jimmy Rollins becomes the 5th active RL player to gain induction. He also becomes the second second baseman to gain entry (he played a good deal at SS, but 2B is where he played more).

The Houston Astros used their 24th overall pick in 2028 to select Rollins.

Playing through the 2045 season, Rollins collected 2101 hits (65th), hit 200 HR on the dot, rapped 428 doubles (68th), scored 1219 runs (59th) and drove in 912. He had a career slash line of 265/320/419 for a npa OPS+ of 100. Rollins stole 353 bases in his career (30th).

Rollins enters the HOF in 2nd place on the All Time triples list with 96, one fewer than George Brett. He led the league 3 times in that category.

Rollins appeared in 4 post seasons and one WS. He came up empty in trying for a ring.

A three time All Star, Rollins enters the HOF at the age of 44.

Black Ink: 4 (15)
Gray Ink: 56 (77)
HOFm: 40.5 (103)
HOFs: 38 (37)

Gorilla Composite: 1.6 (2.5)

Using the standards in place for this HOF and applying them to RL, Jimmy Rollins has not yet attained HOF status.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Bob Watson was selected by the Nationals with the 17th overall pick in the 2019 draft.

He broke in by batting .353, socking 29 HRs, driving in 109 and posting a career high 202 hits and a career high 43 doubles to win the ROY.

Through the 2031 season, he was money to hit .300. Only once did he hit below .310.

When he retired following the 2039 season, Watson had amassed 2798 hits (9th, between George Davis and Hal Chase), 522 doubles (27th, 1 fewer than Vic Saier), 430 HR (53rd), and 49 triples. He collected 1513 career RBI (23rd, between Vic Saier and Ron Cey) and scored 1407 career runs (23rd, between Dave Kingman and Ron Cey). His career slash line of 304/365/511 (79th/*/*) is good for a npa OPS+ of 135.

Watson won a GG in the OF, but enters the HOF as a 1Bman. He appeared in 6 All Star games. He enters the HOF at the age of 51.

Black Ink: 4 (0)
Gray Ink: 95 (49)
HOFm: 117 (28)
HOFs: 52 (24)

Gorilla Composite: 2.6 (1.0)

Last edited by VanillaGorilla; 07-04-2013 at 05:33 PM.
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Old 07-05-2013, 12:34 PM   #63
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Wonder why home runs are so inflated when playing random debut? I find myself using 1976(a down year for home runs) as a base year to avoid seeing guys drilling 60+ bombs on a regular basis.
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Old 07-05-2013, 05:01 PM   #64
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Wonder why home runs are so inflated when playing random debut? I find myself using 1976(a down year for home runs) as a base year to avoid seeing guys drilling 60+ bombs on a regular basis.
In particular to this league, I turned off the statistical adjustment when I hit 2013. What I found was that by leaving this on as the league progressed past a historical reference point that any changes introduced to increase or decrease offense were nullified.

Currently both leagues have the DH and the mound was lowered for the 2043 season. HR and scoring are up about 10% each over the 2012 base.

In general, guys like Stargell and Frank Howard who played in the pitching dominated years put up raw numbers in current climes that seem out of this world, but I am fine with that. The ball parks of the 60s were so much different, as a whole, than today. What the sluggers of that era did is absolutely incredible. Throw 1966 rosters into a 2007 game and it will be "Barry Who?"...ok, maybe not QUITE that, but heck, give Hank Aaron a batting helmet for his entire career and you may be looking at 855+.

Back to the particular for this league, with the Very High injuries, the sluggers that stay healthy are getting bumps when their counterparts go down. The way the game is structured will create outlying seasons from the studs who avoid injury attrition as they game keeps it's statistical output on an aggregate base and Stargell gets 89 HRs instead of Jimmy Rollins getting 30.

This response is of the top of my head. I am no certified expert on any matter regarding anything. Caveat emptor.
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Old 07-05-2013, 06:42 PM   #65
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Class of 2053, VBBWAA Selections, Part 2: Smoltz, Luderus, O'Connor

Out of 9 inductees in this class, John Smoltz is the only pitcher.

Smoltz was taken 5th overall by the Brewers in 2019.

He pitched through the 2043 season and compiled a record of 231-188 and an OOTP ERA of 3.61 (npa ERA+ 128...RL ERA+ 125). He ranks 10th on the career win list.

Smoltz fanned 3902 men (11th) in 3678 1/3 IP (10th, one slot behind Early Wynn). He also saved 78 games, twice saving 30+ in a season.

In 2026 he won 20 games vs 6 losses and had an OOTP ERA of 3.03 (npa ERA+ 149) and struck out 270 men in 229 IP. The Brewers were now located in Austin. He anchored the pitching staff for the WS winning Controllers. HOFers Hank Aaron, Duke Snider and Jackie Robinson were also on that team.

In 2032, now a NY Met, Smoltz won 16 games and again hoisted the WS trophy. Barry Bonds was a member of that team.

In 2034 Smoltz was now closing games for the Mets. He saved a career best 33 as he won his, cool, 3rd WS. Smoltz move to the bullpen coincided with the acquisition of Rube Waddell that off season. Barry Bonds was also on that team.

As a starter, Smoltz was 8-3 in the title run post seasons. As a closer, he notched 3 saves in 3 opportunities.

Smoltz ranks 51st all time with 41 CGs and ranks 56th all time with 9 shut outs.

A four time All Star, John Smoltz enters the HOF at the age of 52.

Black Ink: 9 (34)
Gray Ink: 178 (199)
HOFm: 132.2 (167)
HOFs: 41 (44)

Gorilla Composite: 2.7 (3.7)

Using this model and applying the standards to RL, John Smoltz should be inducted to the RL HOF when he becomes eligible.

------------------------------------

Fred Luderus was selected with the 8th overall pick by the Cincinnati Reds in the 2017 draft.

He broke in to the league by slashing 372/442/764 for a npa OPS+ of 217. He knocked 34 HR and drove in 87. He did this all before July began. A torn calf muscle ended his season on Jne 30. He was till honored with the Rookie of the Year for his efforts.

In 2019 he stayed healthy and continued with his HOF career by launching 62 HR and 40 doubles amongst 202 hits. He collected 173 RBI and scored 122 times. All of these numbers would be career highs. A slash line of 349/409/743 was a npa OPS+ of 200.

Luderus slashed 310/375/596 (t-49th, Bill Skowron/*/25th) for his career which ended following the 2035 season. This translates into a HOF stout 157 npa OPS+. He collected 1974 career hits, 443 HR (48th) and 1362 RBI (44th). He scored 1145 times (73rd) and hit 431 doubles (59th).

Luderus never made it to a WS.

He did make it to 9 All Star games. And he did make it to the HOF. At the age of 57, the 1B man gave his acceptance speech.

Black Ink: 18 (1)
Gray Ink: 122 (99)
HOFm: 158 (6)
HOFs: 47 (8)

Gorilla Composite: 3.5 (0.9)

-----------------------------------------

Dan O'Connor is the latest 'sleeper' pick to make the HOF. Chosen in the 3rd rd (there are 5rds worth of new players generated each season) of the 2023 draft by the Pirates, O'Connor played through the 2042 season and collected 2565 career hits (23rd, 1 spot ahead of Hans Lobert).

O'Connor enters the HOF in 4th place on the career stolen base list with 636 (one spot behind Hans Lobert). He led the league in SB twice, thieving a career high 71 in 2027.

His career slash line of 290/343/422 gives him a npa OPS+ of 107. O'Connor scored 1368 runs (t-26th, Hal Chase) and drove in 968. He had 598 career doubles (9th) and 60 career triples (44th).

In 2037, at the age of 33, O'Connor was a key piece in the (my!) Colorado Rockies winning the World Series. He is the first player from that team to be inducted here.

O'Connor made one All Star team. He enters the HOF at the age of 49.

Black Ink: 5
Gray Ink: 79
HOFm: 55.5
HOFs: 33

Gorilla Composite: 1.8

--------------------------------------
Jimmy Rollins, John Smoltz, Eddie Yost, Fred Luderus, Mike Trout, Dan O'Connor and Bob Watson enter their 1st OOTP HOF.
Jose Canseco and John J McGraw enter their 2nd OOTP HOF.

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Old 07-06-2013, 09:19 AM   #66
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Wonder why home runs are so inflated when playing random debut? I find myself using 1976(a down year for home runs) as a base year to avoid seeing guys drilling 60+ bombs on a regular basis.
A couple more thoughts.

For this league I am not aiming to have any sort of target for single season leader results. The HOF model should function no matter what environment the players actually play.

To touch base with how things are shaping up, 12 players have hit 600 HRs. All of them are inducted. The most any active player has is 555. There are four others active with 500 who have less than 15 years service time.

27 players have hit 500 HRs. 500 HR is not a HOF lock. There are three players with 500 HR who have not been inducted but are eligible.

60 HRs in a season will get you a tie for 39th place. 70 Hrs will get you a tie for 9th. 2 players have broken 80 HRs (Willie Stargell and Hack Miller).

5 players have reached 3000 hits. Two of those are still active. The others are in the Hall (Aaron, Brett, Cepeda).

On the pitching side, 2 players have won 300 games. One is still active and the other is not yet eligible for induction. 7 players have won 250. All that have become eligible with 250 wins have been entered into the HOF.

10 players have 4000 career strikeouts. 2 are active. 6 are in the Hall. 1 was eligible before the 5 year wait went into effect, but currently is not and another has yet to be selected.

So, yes, in this league both HR and K totals are up, while the career hit numbers are perhaps a little on the down side. Stolen bases are definitely down.

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Old 07-06-2013, 03:19 PM   #67
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Class of 2054: Lopez

With John McGraw tagged as a managerial inductee into Cooperstown, there have been no RL HOFers entered in this or the previous class. That's 10 entries. The split is now 21 out of 65 entrants here in Cooperstown. This is now close to what is the historic norm (based on 2 other run-throughs) of approximately 25% RL inductees.

------------------------------

Lopez....Rodrigo? Aurelio? Ray Knight????

Here, and now, it is Javy Lopez who gets the call from the Hall.

Lopez was selected 14th overall in the 2024 draft by the Indians.

He broke in by smacking 38 HR, driving in 103 and batting .333 in 118 games. Some years this wins the Rookie of the Year. In 2025 it did not.

In his sophomore season he again played in 118 games. A broken foot kept him out of the line-up for the better part of May, but that was it. The Indians nursed him throughout the season and he paid them back by slugging 50 HR and collecting 151 RBI. Both would stand as career highs. He slashed 330/371/704 for a npa OPS+ of 177. He also hit a career high 33 doubles and scored a career high 95 runs.

In 2031 he had another solid season as he slashed 295/340/581 (npa OPS+ 139) socking 42 HR and driving in 121 as he led the Tribe to world championship. I do not give extra credit for a player leading Cleveland to a title...perhaps I should.

Lopez had 2011 career hits (83rd). 451 of those were HR (t-45th, George Brett) and 361 were doubles. He posted 1408 RBI (35th, one spot ahead of Bobby Bonilla) and scored a juxtaposed 1048 runs.

He enters the Hall with a career slash line of 287/330/539 which gives him a npa OPS+ of 131. He ranks 98th on the career slg% list, one spot ahead of Jackie Robison.

A 6 time All Star and twice the recipient of the GG for catching, Lopez enters the HOF at the age of 49.

Black Ink: 4 (0)
Gray Ink: 96 (26)
HOFm: 180 (66)
HOFs: 53 (34)

Gorilla Composite: 2.3 (1.3)

This is Javy Lopez' first OOPT HOF induction.
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Old 07-06-2013, 08:41 PM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanillaGorilla View Post
A couple more thoughts.

For this league I am not aiming to have any sort of target for single season leader results. The HOF model should function no matter what environment the players actually play.

To touch base with how things are shaping up, 12 players have hit 600 HRs. All of them are inducted. The most any active player has is 555. There are four others active with 500 who have less than 15 years service time.

27 players have hit 500 HRs. 500 HR is not a HOF lock. There are three players with 500 HR who have not been inducted but are eligible.

60 HRs in a season will get you a tie for 39th place. 70 Hrs will get you a tie for 9th. 2 players have broken 80 HRs (Willie Stargell and Hack Miller).

5 players have reached 3000 hits. Two of those are still active. The others are in the Hall (Aaron, Brett, Cepeda).

On the pitching side, 2 players have won 300 games. One is still active and the other is not yet eligible for induction. 7 players have won 250. All that have become eligible with 250 wins have been entered into the HOF.

10 players have 4000 career strikeouts. 2 are active. 6 are in the Hall. 1 was eligible before the 5 year wait went into effect, but currently is not and another has yet to be selected.

So, yes, in this league both HR and K totals are up, while the career hit numbers are perhaps a little on the down side. Stolen bases are definitely down.
60 should be special and hardly ever ever happen. 70 is stupid and 80 is video game fluff. I will scrap any league that such a thing happens.
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Old 07-07-2013, 04:48 PM   #69
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For the 2054 season I have taken over the Indianapolis Stripes (formerly the San Diego Padres). Running through seasons and seeing how the HOF model works in practice is great fun for me, but playing OOTP is really fun, too. So, I am back at it, and the posts will be less frequent...until I get fired, of course.

Not that this affects the outcome of anything in the HOF to any degree, but this is how I select what team I take:

I determined I would pick up a team in 2054, so I exited Commish mode at the start of 2053 and would have the game stop if I received a personal message. If I had received an offer from either the Diamondbacks or Rockies, I would have accepted it at the time offered, since those were the teams I had previously managed. No offer from either came in.

At the beginning of the off-season I received several offers, none from Arizona or Colorado. I summed the fan interest of all the teams offering jobs and selected a random number from that sum and took the team that had the corresponding number in the fan interest. Is just a little method I use that quickly replicates an actual in depth selection process. A GM is more likely to take a job where the fan interest is good than otherwise, but still might take a job from a low fan interest team for other reasons. So, I got the Stripes which had the second highest fan interest, but are a disaster in the talent department.

Am still in April and I have lost my top two pitchers for the season and my owner expectation is to play .500 ball (this came in before the injuries took place). I think a firing is in my near future.


Quote:
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60 should be special and hardly ever ever happen. 70 is stupid and 80 is video game fluff. I will scrap any league that such a thing happens.
David, I totally get what you are saying here. My response here is not to be taken in any way as a disagreement with your personal preference or a judgment on how you should view things (I honestly don't think I needed to offer that caveat to you, specifically, but in the context of recent board discussions I want to make it clear to any and all readers that this is NOT my intent here, or elsewhere).

I mulled over your take and a couple things came to mind:

1) As I mentioned before, the point of this exercise is to see how the model works under various conditions. Though I do not have an extreme fictional league construct with moon gravity, or anything like that, the model should function under those circumstances, still. I don't take your post as saying my league is hosed because Stargell hit 89 HRs and I should react defensively to what you say. I am not.

89 is the record here, and that is fine for what I am doing. If 89 were to be what 61 was for 30 years, that would be fine. If 89 were to be what 50 was for 30 years after 1961, that would be fine, too, for this exercise. I am documenting what the results are, not judging the actual results (I do make comments and judgments on the HOF entries, however, and with those anyone is free to disagree with me on their merit. For the record, I have been very pleased with that output.).

2) I thought, "What if computers and baseball simulations were what they are now 100 years ago?"

Would someone say that hitting 40 HRs should never ever happen?

Again, not saying you are wrong in holding your sentiment re 80 being video game stuff, but there will be a player that hits 80 HR. It will probably happen when the game evolves to a point where even the 'weakest' hitter with 500 PAs gets 20 HR. What the game looks like today is unfathomable to someone who took the trolley to the park 100 years ago. What it looked like in 1963 was no less inconceivable. What the game will look like in 2063 is probably something equally foreign.

As the game changes it challenges fans and, what is attempted to be modeled here, the HOF voters, to accurately judge what constitutes a great player worthy of enshrinement when 500 HRs or 3000 strikeouts do not mean the same thing that they did in times past.

I am not saying that OOTP will accurately foresee the future environment of baseball. That is simply impossible. What I hope to do here is provide a mechanism for HOF selection that will work in any environment from the past, the present environment, and any environment in the future. If the future environment is like a video game or a return to a dead ball era, the model should work in either case.

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The Likes of Me

Last edited by VanillaGorilla; 07-07-2013 at 05:11 PM. Reason: a couple clean-ups
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Old 07-07-2013, 05:06 PM   #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanillaGorilla View Post
For the 2054 season I have taken over the Indianapolis Stripes (formerly the San Diego Padres. Running through seasons and seeing how the HOF model works in practice is great fun for me, but playing OOTP is really fun, too. So, I am back at it, and the posts will be less frequent...until I get fired, of course.

Not that this affects the outcome of anything in the HOF to any degree, but this is how I select what team I take:

I determined I would pick up a team in 2054, so I exited Commish mode at the start of 2053 and would have the game stop if I received a personal message. If I had received an offer from either the Diamondbacks or Rockies, I would have accepted it at the time offered, since those were the teams I had previously managed. No offer from either came in.

At the beginning of the off-season I received several offers, none from Arizona or Colorado. I summed the fan interest of all the teams offering jobs and selected a random number from that sum and took the team that had the corresponding number in the fan interest. Is just a little method I use that quickly replicates an actual in depth selection process. A GM is more likely to take a job where the fan interest is good than otherwise, but still might take a job from a low fan interest team for other reasons. So, I got the Stripes which had the second highest fan interest, but are a disaster in the talent department.

Am still in April and I have lost my top two pitchers for the season and my owner expectation is to play .500 ball (this came in before the injuries took place. I think a firing is in my near future.




David, I totally get what you are saying here. My response here is not to be taken in any way as a disagreement with your personal preference or a judgment on how you should view things (I honestly don't think I needed to offer that caveat to you, specifically, but in the context of recent board discussions I want to make it clear to any and all readers that this is NOT my intent here, or elsewhere).

I mulled over your take and a couple things came to mind:

1) As I mentioned before, the point of this exercise is to see how the model works under various conditions. Though I do not have an extreme fictional league construct with moon gravity, or anything like that, the model should function under those circumstances, still. I don't take your post as saying my league is hosed because Stargell hit 89 HRs and I should react defensively to what you say. I am not.

89 is the record here, and that is fine for what I am doing. If 89 were to be what 61 was for 30 years, that would be fine. If 89 were to be what 50 was for 30 years after 1961, that would be fine, too, for this exercise. I am documenting what the results are, not judging the actual results (I do make comments and judgments on the HOF entries, however, and with those anyone is free to disagree with me on their merit. For the record, I have been very pleased with that output.).

2) I thought, "What if computers and baseball simulations were what they are now 100 years ago?"

Would someone say that hitting 40 HRs should never ever happen?

Again, not saying you are wrong in holding your sentiment re 80 being video game stuff, but there will be a player that hits 80 HR. It will probably happen when the game evolves to a point where even the 'weakest' hitter with 500 PAs gets 20 HR. What the game looks like today is unfathomable to someone who took the trolley to the park 100 years ago. What it looked like in 1963 was no less inconceivable. What the game will look like in 2063 is probably something equally foreign.

As the game changes it challenges fans and, what is attempted to be modeled here, the HOF voters, to accurately judge what constitutes a great player worthy of enshrinement when 500 HRs or 3000 strikeouts do not mean the same thing that they did in times past.

I am not saying that OOTP will accurately foresee the future environment of baseball. That is simply impossible. What I hope to do here is provide a mechanism for HOF selection that will work in any environment from the past, the present environment, and any environment in the future. If the future environment is like a video game or a return to a dead ball era, the model should work in either case.

Respectfully Submitted,
The Likes of Me
Ugh, in no way was I commenting on your game at all. I'm talking random debut as a whole. I love it, but I know I can't use it like I do historical and or fictional due to inflated (steroid like) home run numbers. I've seen this in the 60's, 70's, 80's and 2012. This means I have to use a certain year as a base year and can't let the game ebb and flow according to baseball history. I love random debut too much to abandon it, but I'm really hoping something can be done to tone down guys hitting 60-80 home runs on a regular basis. That doesn't mean I never want a guy to hit 60+, just that I want it to be special not the norm.

As for your other dispute on this board, don't let that get under your skin. You handled yourself very well in that debate.

PS....I hope it doesn't seem like I'm trying to hijack your thread, it's just that you are one of the very few people that makes use of random debut. I think you and The Game are the 2 experts on this aspect of the game. I am learning through trial and error and in the process I have basically become addicted.

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Old 07-11-2013, 09:47 PM   #71
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Class of 2055: None

No players were named to the HOF by either the VBBWAA of the Veterans Committee. This is the last year without any new First Ballot entrants (players that were on the ballot with the one year wait, but were removed when the 5 year wait began were not given a second First Ballot Screening).

I was in error when I posted previously that there would be zero inductees in 2056. The only ones that will get in next year will be through the First Ballot screening. I am pretty darn sure there will be at least one, but I have been wrong about that before, also.

The voters and Vet Committee have gone heavily towards hitters entering. This does not affect any future selections re hitters v pitchers. That more hitters have entered does not alter the selection process to continue to favor hitters or to favor pitchers in order to make up for the disparity. The hitters will continue to enter at a probability rate of 2:1 over pitchers.

The highest career totals for eligible players not yet inducted are:

244 wins (8th)
4322 strikeouts (10th)
2573 hits (21st)
516 HR (27th)

----------------------------------------

My season was disastrous. I scored 1 out of 100. Have to expect that when your entire rotation is of middling AAA quality.

There was one SP with 3.5 overall stars in the pool. There was also Stan Musial. I picked 4th, and I would not have gotten either of them even if I had picked third.

I did get Doug Rader, who has signed with me, with the 4th pick, and fills a hole at 3B. Rader was a good player, in his day, but it is no slight to Rader in saying that the drop-off from Musial to him is, um, fairly substantial.

I have great confidence that I will not last all the way through this coming season running the Stripes.

I do have some quality arms that will be coming off of injuries, but when the arms are coming off of injuries, it is a fool's game to count on them as being quality upon their return.

That OOTP models this is just another super cool thing about this game.
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Old 07-14-2013, 08:22 AM   #72
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League Update

When I contracted the league to 28 teams I also reconfigured the AAA system to two 14 team leagues. I chose to make an East/West configuration with no "interleague" play.

In doing this I used the location of the minor league teams, not the location of the major league teams. Somehow I managed to remove the affiliation of the Washington Nationals and that team was dominating since those players were not getting called up. I don't believe it is coincidence that the Nationals were having a rough go of it.

Though I did not intend for this to happen, it did happen. I will chalk this up as a similarity to the gross mismanagement of the Expos/Nationals while under the ownership of MLB.

I affiliated the team and the Nationals immediately executed a trade and revamped its major league roster.

User error on my part, but an interesting discovery (for me, at least) on how the game operates.

----------------------------------

I am just past the All Star break and somehow I am only three games out of first place (Two 7 team divisions in each league, no WC). The average number of players per team on the injury list still holds around 5, but I have 13...mostly pitchers. My rotation is horrid, but my bullpen has been busy and spectacular. The Stripes are one of three teams that do not play in a neutral park (there were four, but Austin, the former Brewers, was contracted). The Stripes play in a very pitching friendly environment. That may be my salvation.

Using the objective standards I devised for team strategy re rebuild/neutral/win now, the Stripes have gone from rebuild, at the start of the season, to neutral at Memorial Day, to Win Now at July 4.

With all the difficulties the team has had, and the fact that way more often than not the pitching match-up indicates a bad outlook for my team, and that my team is 14th of 14 in runs scored, the season has been made very exciting.

Doug Rader spent a month on the DL, but is hitting better than .300. On the other hand, Stan Musial did not sign with the team that used the first overall pick to sign him. Perhaps not getting the opportunity to draft him has turned out to be a plus.

The first player I drafted when I took over the team the year before was Richie Zisk. Zisk has been an All Star twice and is currently leading the league in hitting (around .360) while playing in the pitching friendly Stripes stadium. The Indianapolis park does increase doubles and triples, slightly, but BA and HRs are severely depressed.
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Old 07-16-2013, 01:28 PM   #73
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Class of 2056: Johnson

With the 66th induction, the Selection Committee finally gives support for a Johnson.

Randy D Johnson, the Big Unit, enters the HOF as a First Ballot entry, at the age of 53. Yes, this means he pitched into his late 40s. Actually, he pitched in the Majors until he was 44, but did not retire until he was 47.

Johnson was the 6th overall selection in the 2025 draft, picked by the Jacksonville Sonics (formerly the Los Angeles Dodgers).

In his career, The Unit posted 304 wins, becoming the first 300 game winner in league history. He ranks second on the career win at the time of his induction.

Johnson did it here as in RL. His 5441 Ks rank him 3rd in league history. He pitched 4252 2/3 IP, 3rd most, one slot ahead of HOFer Toad Ramsey, who is listed as better than a foot shorter at 5' 8". His K rate of 11.515 per 9 IP ranks him 14th all time.

A side note: Of the 16 pitchers that have been inducted, 10 are listed as 6' or taller. 6 are listed as 5' 10" or shorter.

Johnson was tagged with losses 171 times in his career. This gives him a win% of .640. This also ranks him 14th career wise, at the time of his induction. There are only two players eligible for the HOF that have a better win% that are not already inducted. Compare to RL record of 303-166.

His career OOTP ERA of 3.35 gives him a npa ERA+ of 136.
Compare this to RL ERA of 3.29 and ERA + of 135. Pretty freaking amazing.

In 2034 he took home the CYA with a 22-5 mark, a 2.225 OOTP ERA (npa ERA+ 190) while striking out 369 men in 244 1/3 IP. This would be his 3rd dtraight season striking out 300+ hitters. He fanned 300 6 times in his career.

In 2038 he left the Sonics for Baltimore. There he posted a 17-5 mark with 245 K in 210 2/3 IP and led the Orioles to a WS victory. His 2.78 OOTP ERA made for a 156 npa ERA+. Fellow HOFer George Brett was also on that squad.

In 2044, at the age of 41, he won 19 games vs 11 losses for the Marlins. His 3.08 OOTP ERA was good for a 146 npa ERA+. His efforts landed the Fish in the play-offs and was capped off by a victory parade following the WS. Johnson joins HOF teammates Bobby Bonilla, Jim Gentile, and Early Wynn in the shrine from that squad.

A 10 time All-Star, Randy Johnson enters his second OOTP HOF.

Black Ink: 40 (99)
Gray Ink: 269 (280)
HOFm: 261.8 (331)
HOFs: 65 (65)

Gorilla Composite: 5.2 (7.0)

As he was here, Randy Johnson should be a no-brainer first ballot inductee IRL, based on the standards that are in use, here.
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Old 07-20-2013, 02:33 PM   #74
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Class of 2057: None

1 player did receive a FBS, but he did not meet those standards.

With the five year wait I lose mental track of who may be coming up as software selections, so when I see those pop up, it is a bit of a surprise for me.

Through 1959 the RL HOF had 67 player entrants. Here there have been 66 through the corresponding year.

There are slightly fewer players here that played in MLB through 1959. The overall number of entrants is right on track.

------------------------------

I resigned from the Stripes before I got fired. I have a little system that I use based on my teams performance that I employ for these leagues for this. I performed the draft for the Stripes and then left. Having three of your last 4 top draft picks effectively out for the entire season will lead to a last place finish, quite often. It was time to git while the gittin' was good. I will take a job in the 2060 season.

For now, the HOF postings will speed up, until I go back to actually playing.

2 seasons ago the NL got rid of the DH. This hurt my team since I had offensive talent in the OF and Richie Zisk pulling a lot of DH duty.

The 2057 season will be the tenth since the league contracted. League expansion will be enabled in the league evolution menu for the 2058 season.

I am thinking about going to 3 10 team leagues if the league expands, again. With no interleague play, each team would face the others in their league 18 times for a 162 game schedule. Play-off format would be league winners with 2 wild cards teams playing an extra round.

My concern for HOF purposes is how All Star selections would work. I want computer generated AS teams, even if there would be no game played. Does anyone know if using a three league format and enabling the ASG would generate 3 AS teams even if no game is actually played?

Thanks in advance.
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Old 07-21-2013, 12:20 AM   #75
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Class of 2058: None

Again, one player received a FBS, but he did not reach the threshold for induction on that basis.
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Old 07-21-2013, 06:03 PM   #76
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Class of 2059: None

A three year drought of entrants is the longest period of time in HOF run through (though it is only possible with the mechanisms that are in use for the first time, here).

One player received a FBS who will probably find his way into the HOF, but just not on his first ballot.

One mechanism that came into play for this class was the new First Ballot routine.

One pitcher was selected to join the Hall this year, but Randy Johnson entered in a year that had no entries, so the next time a pitcher was selected, that entry would be "taken" by Johnson. And because of that, there are no entries for this year.

-----------------------------

I am taking the job with the Columbus Prairie Storm. The owner is listed as "unmerciful" in his patience. This should be fun.

The league expanded by 2 teams. I meant to expand the play-offs, but forgot to do so. Heck, since the game was played with 2 eight team leagues for a long time and only one of those went to the WS, I am leaving my no WC play-off format in tact.

---------------------------------

My former team, the Indianapolis Stripes, won the WS.

I had the second pick in the draft I did for them before resigning. Harry Hooper was the guy I wanted, based on current ability by my scout. He was snapped up with the first pick, and won ROY. I grabbed the only SP ready to jump into a rotation in the draft, and with the second pick I took Atley Donald.

Yeah, I thought the same thing.

Well, he wound up leading the team with 15 wins in 2059. And my second pick, Ron Perranoski, saved 14 games and had an ERA below 2.00.

I am taking credit for their WS win. Though it may be true that the biggest favor I did for them was turn over controls to someone else.
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Old 07-22-2013, 06:46 PM   #77
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Class of 2060: Johnson, Sabathia, Hoblitzell

Two consecutive First Ballot entries for Johnsons. Perhaps the Selection Committee was waiting for Walter Johnson to become eligible before electing any other player. Whether or not that is the case, The Big Train and The Big Unit are in the discussion for best pitchers in the history of this league, just as they are in RL.

Walter Johnson is the career leader in Victories with 332 (vs 196 losses). He ranks second on the career strike out list with 5662, behind only Toad Ramsey and one spot ahead of Randy Johnson.

Second on the K list, Johnson's 1159 career walks are only the 14th most in league history.

Walter Johnson was picked by the Braves with the third overall selection in the 2029 draft.

At the age of 18 he struck out 170 batters in just under 125 IP, in 1930.

In 1934 he began a streak of 6 consecutive seasons with 300+ strikeouts as he fanned 386 men in 271 1/3 IP while posting a 20-6 mark with an OOTP ERA of 2.26 which was good for a career best 190 npa ERA+. His 13.6 WAR from that season was also a career best, and the 5th best season, all time.

This season did not have Johnson winning the Cy Young Award. That didn't happen until 1937. And 1938. And 1939. Then again in 1941. And finally in 1945.

In 1938 he won 26 games vs 7 losses in 35 starts. No other pitcher in league history has topped 25 wins in a season. Only 3 others have won 25.

Johnson's career 3.36 ERA ranks 28th best for a career (npa ERA+ 143).

His .629 win % ranks him 20th.

With 653 career starts and 4812 IP, Walter Johnson is the career leader in both of these categories.

Striking out 10.59 men per 9 innings in his career, Johnson ranks 29th on that career list, just 0.01 behind 28th place Tim Keefe.

The Train is second to only Toad Ramsey on the career VORP and WAR lists.

Johnson pitched in 9 post seasons, but in only one ws.

In 1937 he was 4-0 in 5 starts, striking out 49 and walking 9 for the post season, but his Mariner team fell to the Rockies in 6.

8 times he won 20 games in a season, including 5 seasons in a row from 1936-1940. 8 times he struck out 300 men in a season. 8 times he was named to the All Star team.

Walter Johnson struck out 12 Washington Nationals as he threw a no hitter in 2035. He allowed one walk.

Johnson Ranks second in career complete games with 116, trailing only Toad Ramsey. 3rd place holder Early Wynn has 85.

Johnson's 34 career shutouts also only trails Ramsey's 40. 3rd place holder Rube Waddell has 20.

Johnson last pitched in the Majors in 2052, but did not retire until 2054. Though he is the only First Ballot selection of this class, because he stayed active for so long, he is the oldest of the three inductees. He enters the HOF at the age of 48.

Black Ink: 76 (150)
Gray Ink: 316 (420)
HOFm: 320.4 (364)
HOFs: 65 (83)

Gorilla Composite: 6.6 (9.5)

--------------------------------------------

A HOF career is a HOF career. CC Sabathia had one here. It is not the career classmate Walter Johnson had, but CC isn't entering on a fluke.

Sabathia was selected by the San Diego Jewels (formerly the Texas Rangers) with the 6th pick in the 2031 draft.

CC took a couple seasons to find his groove. In 2035, at the age of 21, he went 16-5 with an OOTP ERA of 2.43 which gave him a career best 182 npa ERA+. He struck out 225 men in 204 1/3 IP while walking only 38.

Some shortened seasons from injury followed, and his output was inconsistent for the next few season.

In 2042, now a SF Giant, Sabathia was back in form as he won a career high 20 games while dropping only 7 decisions.

In 2047 he had his final peak season at the age of 34. He went 16-7 for the now defunct Austin Controllers (formerly the Brewers). His OOTP ERA of 3.02 was good for a npa ERA+ of 152 as he led Austin to the play-offs.

In 5 post season starts, Sabathia notched 5 wins as the Controllers took the WS. He is the first player from that squad to enter the HOF.

For his career, Sabathia won 234 games (9th) vs 177 losses. His career OOTP ERA of 3.69 renders a npa ERA+ of 123.

Sabathia struck out 3622 men (16th, one spot behind Tim Keefe) while walking 881. He pitched 61 CGs (11th), 18 of which were shutouts (6th).

A 6 time All Star, Sabathia enters the HOF at the age of 47.

Black Ink: 7 (23)
Gray Ink: 176 (177)
HOFm: 109.3 (108)
HOFs: 43 (43)

Gorilla Composite: 2.6 (2.9)

As of today, CC Sabathia would not have a HOF career, IRL, using the standards in place here applied to RL. However, chances are quite good that he will wind up with RL HOF credentials and be a RL HOFer.

--------------------------------------

Dick Hoblitzell was selected with the 6th pick in the 2032 draft by the Tigers.

Though he did not win ROY, the 18 year-old was Rookie of the Month 3 times in 2033 as he slashed 326/393/576 for a npa OPS+ of 164. He hit 27 HRs, scored 94, and drove in 85 in 124 games.

In 2034 he batted .370 and collected 199 hits. He would collect 200+ hits in each of the next 3 seasons. From 2034 through 2040 he collected over 190 hits each season and 200+ hits 5 times. Though he never won a batting title, he did lead the league in base hits three times.

Though he never won a WS, in 9 postseasons Hoblitzell slashed 296/351/538 with 14 HR in 68 games. 6 of those HRs came in 2038 when the Tigers fell to the Mets in 5 games.

For his career, Hoblitzell slashed 324/390/479 (23rd, one spot behind Pete Rose/55th/*). His 2567 career hits rank him 24th on the All Time list, 2 better than Dan O'Connor. He also hit 511 doubles (32nd, 1 spot behind Tim Wallach), 66 triples (34th) and 196 HR. His 1794 career singles rank him 11th, sandwiched between Bob Watson and Hank Aaron.

He scored 1319 runs (42nd, 1 spot behind Bobby Bonilla) and drove in 1016. He also stole 247 bases (94th).

A 6 time All Star, Dick Hoblitzell enters the HOF at the age of 45.

Black Ink: 19 (3)
Gray Ink: 132 (52)
HOFm: 143 (4)
HOFs: 47 (7)

Gorilla Composite: 3.5 (0.6)

-------------------------------------

Walter Johnson has been inducted into each of the three OOTP HOF.

CC Sabathia and Dick Hoblitzell each make their first appearance in an OOTP HOF.

Walter Johnson is the 22nd RL HOF enshrined here.
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Old 07-22-2013, 07:04 PM   #78
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Note of Interest

Currently HOFer Barry Bonds is 10th on the career OPS list. His, uh, younger father, Bobby, is 11th.

Bobby Bonds suffered a setback from a broken hand and has retired with a CEI (perhaps he broke it trying to pound some sense into Barry's augmented cranium). Bobby Bonds had 9 years and 38 days of ML service time. He will not enter the HOF as he did not reach the 10 years of service time needed to be eligible.

Bobby had 1327 hits, 335 HR, and 923 RBI in 1095 games played. He had a slash line of 315/403/625 (npa OPS+ 162) and would have been on odds on favorite to finish with a HOF entry, had he met the 10 year requirement.
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Old 07-23-2013, 10:42 AM   #79
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Long off season

A quick add to the Bonds post:

Bobby Bonds retires 23rd on the All Time OBP list and 11th on the All Time slg% list. Below is a snip of his career slg% company.

A note on the Prairie Thunder:

I was not offered a job from any of the teams I had previously managed (ARI, COL, IND). Columbus was one of three teams to offer me a job. I used the same method described earlier to choose which team to take, based on fan interest. Columbus had the lowest fan interest of the three teams, and had finished 43 games out of first place...is not as bad as it sounds since Cleveland won 118.

Things cycle in the league. The league started with a lot of all-time great hitters and few all-time great pitchers. Then more top named pitchers came a long and fewer hitters were coming into the league. Now, it has switched back and pitching is at a premium (in random debut quality pitching is always at a premium, but it is at a greater premium now).

Columbus had the 7th pick in the draft. Of the first 6 picks, SPs were taken 5 times. If someone knew who who even two of those 5 SPs were, I would consider him a baseball history guru.

So, when my pick came around, there with all of his beautiful stars on my scout page was Ralph Kiner (the only RL HOFer in the draft). The 6th best pitcher in the draft wasn't wasn't going to help me more than Kiner. Heck, the second best pitcher in the draft wasn't even close. A coin toss on Kiner vs the top SP. So, I am pleased with that start.

Again, things will be slower, until I get axed. Smart money is on soon, as always.
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Old 07-25-2013, 06:36 PM   #80
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Fired

Smart money wins, again!

With a 38-59 mark, 25 games out, and in last place on July 22, I got the axe.

You know you are in trouble when:

A 33 year-old Dave Dravecky is your ace (not a RL season that saw things go well, for him)

Your ace demands a trade because at this stage of his career he wants to play for a winning team

You trade him for a young Pumpsie Green and a minor league MR throw in (who is immediately placed on your ML team) and your new 2Bman goes down for the season within a week of acquiring him


It was actually a fun team with a lot of upside in coming years. 22 year-olds Dean Palmer and Ralph Kiner for hitters and nicely performing 23 year-old pitchers Spades Wood and Ted Lewis to build from were making me look forward to the next season (that will never come).

I won't take over a team until 2152....by that time the real players will be exhausted, unless there are multiple contractions....so, I am done for the run.

How weak is the SP depth in the league, currently? No SP in the Free Agent pool, and said 33 y/o Dave Dravecky is a 3.5 star overall rated pitcher. When 9/12/11 is 3.5 stars (from an 11 fastball, 11 slider, and 9 change on a 20 scale), that is a thin pool.

But, the tale-of-the-tape for me was 13 players on the injured list. When you are realistically looking at .500 talent, you are going to need some things fall your way to actually contend. You can't be on the beating end of the injury stick. That is what happened early, and often.

Back to simming seasons!

On the bright side, the HOF numbers are about to pick up, and the posts will speed up, and that is a lot of fun, also....and why I post here. The class of 2061 might get posted tonight.

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