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Old 01-07-2019, 04:27 PM   #41
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Quote:
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Spud Chandler's ratings come in at STU:84 MOV:82 CON:81 which calculates at 2.727 or something thereabouts. How does that slot in with your other calculations, ASURay?
In the #4 - #7 range depending on the model. Very nice. What does that card cost?
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:37 PM   #42
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I have a PhD in statistics and work as a research methodologist when I'm not playing OOTP/PT, so this is kind of my thing. That said, I doubt it gives me much of an advantage. At the end of the day, PP is king.
Haha, yeah... as the big boys like the Yankees and Red Sox have proven, money covers a lot of mistakes.
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:38 PM   #43
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In the #4 - #7 range depending on the model. Very nice. What does that card cost?
Last number I saw was 75K.
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:41 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ASURay View Post
I have a PhD in statistics and work as a research methodologist when I'm not playing OOTP/PT, so this is kind of my thing. That said, I doubt it gives me much of an advantage. At the end of the day, PP is king.
Also, as time moves on, everyone sees exactly how the players perform. With a large enough sample size, everyone will be right.
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:47 PM   #45
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Last number I saw was 75K.
Ouch.
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:49 PM   #46
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Also, as time moves on, everyone sees exactly how the players perform. With a large enough sample size, everyone will be right.
True, though this assumes that we eventually have access to card performance data across all leagues. I imagine this is something that can be done in v20 with an API.
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:52 PM   #47
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Any opinions of good starters in the under 10K range that are better than Barker, Dierker, Syndergaard, Corbin, etc?
I just used ASURay's formula in my spreadsheet that contains auction prices from the past several days. I came up with:

OVR, Name, FIP_p, Price
90 Gary Peters 4.02, 8K
91 Josh Beckett 4.23, 9K
91 Chris Carpenter 4,24, 8K
89 Whitey Ford 4.26, 4.5K
93 David Cone 4.27, 8K
89 Gaylord Perry 4.29, 4.5K
89 Roy Halladay 4.29, 6.5K

84 Larry Dierker 4.40, 2.1K
78 Len Barker 4.48, 3.5K

The prices may have moved a little, but you should be able to find a couple from that list.
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:57 PM   #48
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Here's the whole list. The prices are the Last 5 average, mostly from within a week or so depending upon the last time I saw it.

Edit: removed the chart since it has been updated on page 6/7 and the prices are now out of date.
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Old 01-07-2019, 05:14 PM   #49
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Here's the whole list. The prices are the Last 5 average, mostly from within a week or so depending upon the last time I saw it.

(Please ignore the shading. If you are curious, orange are the ones I own and yellow are the ones I want. Gray are some target 2018 Live cards that I used for comparison.)


Attachment 596123
Can you send your spreadsheet to me? It looks more complete than mine. I also have a few new models I can plugin. How many 90+ SPs are in your records? My spreadsheet has 93.
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Old 01-07-2019, 05:17 PM   #50
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I only have 79 at 90+, but I have quite a few high golds also. Sure, I will send it to you soon.
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Old 01-07-2019, 05:19 PM   #51
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Can you send your spreadsheet to me? It looks more complete than mine. I also have a few new models I can plugin. How many 90+ SPs are in your records? My spreadsheet has 93.
Here's the best model I have right now:

FIP_p = 8.661141 - (.01747*STUFF) - (.03291*MOV) - (.01737*CON)

This thread motivated me to update some of my numbers today. This model uses data from all pitchers in my league with at least 500 career IP across any league level. It actually correlates better to Perfect League FIP from last week than the model that uses only PL data. I'm guessing that will change as the amount of PL-only data increases.
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Old 01-07-2019, 05:21 PM   #52
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I only have 79 at 90+, but I have quite a few high golds also. Sure, I will send it to you soon.
Nice. I'll go through yours and add 90+ guys that I have in my spreadsheet, update the formula for FIP (I'll include both the PL-only model as well as the all-league model), then send it back to you. I'll also add a column for something like FIP/PP to get an idea of the most efficient SPs.
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Old 01-07-2019, 05:22 PM   #53
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Nice. I'll go through yours and add 90+ guys that I have in my spreadsheet, update the formula for FIP (I'll include both the PL-only model as well as the all-league model), then send it back to you. I'll also add a column for something like FIP/PP to get an idea of the most efficient SPs.
Thanks, I sent you a PM.
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Old 01-07-2019, 06:15 PM   #54
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I need more charts, these are awesome guys!!!
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Old 01-07-2019, 07:31 PM   #55
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Hi guys, sorry guys, I wrote before seeing above

What about a Tom Seaver card? Does anyone have one? He should be a 100, I forgot the 1.76 season, what year it was

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Old 01-07-2019, 07:41 PM   #56
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Hi guys, sorry guys, I wrote before seeing above

What about a Tom Seaver card? Does anyone have one? He should be a 100, I forgot the 1.76 season, what year it was
It’s okay. That card and the 100 Koufax are cards I’d sell right away. You can prb get two high-diamond SPs like a 96 Brown, a 93 or 94 Maddux, etc. for what you’d get for a 100 Seaver.
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Old 01-07-2019, 08:19 PM   #57
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This thread is fascinating, but if you could stop giving away the list of pitchers I want, that'd be fantastic. A couple of my targets will clearly cost me more on the rare occasion they are on the auction block for 5 minutes before someone does a buy now next time. Thanks guys lol
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Old 01-07-2019, 08:39 PM   #58
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Great read to come home to.

The only thing I can contribute is that in both beta and to this point on live Brown and Scott were the 2 most common pitchers in the leaderboards in every league I have played through this point with 3 teams. Both are in my rotation and have performed as expected. I pulled Brown in my initial 25 packs and couldn't have been happier. Has was my #1 target. I paid roughly 30k PP for Scott and I have no regrets. Hes also been down as low as 20k recently. Add Degrom as well to this as well

2 pitchers that were sub par to me in diamond were Gerrit Cole and for some reason Kershaw

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Old 01-07-2019, 08:53 PM   #59
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This thread is fascinating, but if you could stop giving away the list of pitchers I want, that'd be fantastic. A couple of my targets will clearly cost me more on the rare occasion they are on the auction block for 5 minutes before someone does a buy now next time. Thanks guys lol
Yeah, I want these guys too, and I am screwing myself.
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Old 01-08-2019, 01:23 AM   #60
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This seems to change in the higher leagues. Left handers get shelled regularly and are generally relegated to the bullpen. Even my 100 R. Johnson is all the way down as my 5th starter. Degrom is consistently putting out better outings. So I'm not sure how you can account for that, but probably should. Also your 100 Sandy Koufax is showing the STUFF rating as a RP not a SP. He is 103 as an SP and 113 as a RP.
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