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Old 01-14-2020, 11:44 AM   #1
TuckerDuckson
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Is the Matt Chapman live card like broken?

So, I've had the 97 overall Matt Chapman live card for 20 "seasons" now, and let me say, he is horrifically bad in PT, avoid him like the plague. I kind of just get cards and let my team sit, so I don't care that much but really. He's accumulated a combined 2.2 WAR so far in 20 seasons, his 20 season WAR average is 0.0. His combined slash is .216/.300/.376 with an 85 wrc+. I've learned that contact is way better than power most of the times now that I'm moving up the latter and Chapman has got a 51 so I'm not expecting him to hit over .300, but with 81 power I'd expect him to have his highest home run total to be more than 15 homeruns a season. He has 200 home runs in 20 seasons with me. I've had him benched for like 12 seasons because he was just racking up -1.0 seasons, and even when he is benched he can't hit more than .175.

Real life Matt Chapman for reference has a composite slash of .257/.341/.500 and hit 36 homeruns last season and 74 total in 3 seasons.

Offense aside (and I think this is the biggest thing) is that his defense is horrific. Like really bad. Over 20 seasons, he has a combined -76.8 ZR a .949 F% and a RF of 2.36. This also comes with defensive ratings of an infield range of 94, infield error of 57, an infield arm of 97, and turn DP of 58.

Those are post-retirement David Ortiz numbers at the hot corner, not a gold glove caliber 26 year old in his prime. Right?

For example, the real Matt Chapman averages an above average 35.0 UZR in 3 seasons according to fangraphs, to go along with a .966 F% and a RF of 3.23. Like what?

And it's not I'm in perfect leagues or anything, I literally just got moved up into Diamond this week. This has been majorly against Silver or (rarely) gold competition. I mean I could sell him, but he rarely plays anymore anyways so.

What gives?
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Old 01-14-2020, 01:21 PM   #2
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I'll weigh in with my two cents with some different points:

- Chapman has the Contact rating of a .249 hitter that was calculated against average pitching. Even in a Silver league, I'm guessing he's facing nothing but all-star or better pitchers (and by that I mean star vs. a real-life context, not vs. the pitcher you face in Perfect Leagues). If he's rated to be a .249 hitter against an average pitcher, what would that type of guy do against nothing but top-flight pitching? I'm surprised he's even as far over the Mendoza Line as he is.

- I believe a player's power rating is based on his percentage of hits that may be HR's, not a number representing how many homers he'll hit. There's more to the algorithm than that, of course. But just trying to put that particular rating into context. Now think about the first point in conjunction with the second; a lower percentage of hits is going to yield a lower percentage of homers. Combine that with pitchers who are going to have much better Movement ratings than your standard pitcher.

- In my opinion, it appears that the pitcher/hitter algorithm first looks at "Did this pitch result in the ball being put in play?" and that a player's Avoid K rating comes into play before his Contact rating during that process. I believe this is why the vast majority of Live hitters are mainly useless. Their sub-50 Avoid K ratings make it so they don't make it past the "was the pall put in play" part of the algorithm often enough. Meanwhile, a player like Bronze Luis Aparicio will consistently hit .245 in Perfect League facing historic cards with virtually the same Contact rating as Chapman simply because he has a good Avoid K rating.

- There's also a league totals factor. Every league is based upon a modern league total context. 81 power is probably a very normal number in a league full of guys who probably have 70-90 power. Unless there's a bunch of all-defense/speed teams in your league or something. If there are a bunch of 70- high 80's power guys in your league, an 81 guy now has average power. My FTP Pack Only team is full of guys with 70-80 power. And I'm usually near the bottom of the team HR totals each year in Perfect. Partly due to facing stud pitching. But a lot to do with the fact that those power ratings just aren't very good in the context of the league.
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Old 01-14-2020, 02:44 PM   #3
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With regards to his defense - I'm convinced there is something weird going on in this game at 3B. The other defensive positions seem to be fairly predictable in what kind of ZR they will put up in any given season, but 3B defense is really all over the place. I've found that the only way to reliably get good ZR at 3B is to use a gold-glove caliber shortstop there, which really makes no sense. The bar should be much lower at 3B, since that is traditionally a bat-first position. I suspect Chapman's struggles are related to the low error rating, but really, it doesn't make much sense.

On offense generally yeah, contact is better and power hitters can struggle as you move up. If you have several of these types of players though, you should consider adjusting your park to suppress contact and boost power, and they would play a little better.
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Old 01-14-2020, 03:23 PM   #4
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You're not kidding...I use Louis Aparicio bronze or Mark Belanger bronze as backup anything in the IF...I have one Louis that's rated over 100 around all 4 IF spots! Cost me a whopping 200m points, and hits from .190-.285 in Perfect level.
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Old 01-14-2020, 03:52 PM   #5
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Is anyone else using that card and are they having the same results. I have a few live cards that do poorly for me in all my teams but other teams have had success with. One that comes to mind is LIVE Judge - 96, I have seen other teams have good results but he is just horrible in all my teams. On the other end is LIVE Altuve- 89, earns me tons of points and is rock solid, I think I have him on all my teams. Not sure if he performs as well on other teams as I haven;t bothered checking. RNG gods like it when players pull out hair and howl at the moon.

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Old 01-14-2020, 09:27 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pine Tar View Post
Is anyone else using that card and are they having the same results...
I've been using the Chapman card since it was one of my first good pulls, and in over 1500 games played at Perfect level he's got a career OPS+ of 78 and a WAR of 1.5.

On the defensive side, 2.31 RF, -65.6 ZR, .967 EFF
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:40 PM   #7
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Arenado and Brooks Robinson also deliver much less than their cards and reputations promise.

Kelly Gruber, otoh, makes an excellent 1B and SS.

PT has some odd quirks.
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Old 01-15-2020, 02:09 PM   #8
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Defensive zone rating stats for 3B are very bugged. One of the devs talked about it the last time I brought it up. It has something to do with how each season it is calculated relative to the current league.
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