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OOTP 20 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 10-29-2019, 07:41 PM   #1
jjrichards7
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1927 Season Replay

I have started replaying the 1927 season , single season mode. I am managing the NY Yankees. I am noting a few odd stats and replay on opposing teams

1. For the Yankees in only 16 games , there have been multiple games where I have had 4 to 5 errors in a game . The Yankees were a good fielding team .

2. Opposing starting pitchers have pitch counts exceeding 130 plus pitches. I know back then starting pitchers had high counts, however 130 especially for number 3 and 4 starter is high.


Has anyone experienced the same issues ?
Jeff
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Old 10-29-2019, 09:50 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjrichards7 View Post
1. For the Yankees in only 16 games , there have been multiple games where I have had 4 to 5 errors in a game . The Yankees were a good fielding team .
This could simply be the result of a small sample size. The Yankees committed 196 errors in 1927 - more than one per game. In 2019, by comparison, the most errors any team committed was 171. So if you're judging 1927 by 2019 standards, it may look like there is an unrealistic number of errors. Play out the full season and see if the numbers don't even out.

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Originally Posted by jjrichards7 View Post
2. Opposing starting pitchers have pitch counts exceeding 130 plus pitches. I know back then starting pitchers had high counts, however 130 especially for number 3 and 4 starter is high.
I'm not sure that's unrealistic either. The number 3 and 4 starters for the Yanks - Herb Pennock and Dutch Ruether - had 30 complete games and nearly 400 IP between them. They pitched a lot. Reliable stats on the number of pitches thrown by pitchers in that era are unobtainable, but I wouldn't be too surprised if they threw 130 pitches in a game.

That being said, I think OOTP models pitchers in all eras on current-day pitchers. For instance, one reason I think it's possible pitchers today throw more pitches than in the past is because hitters foul off more pitches than they used to. That's not because hitters are better today. In many ways, they aren't - e.g. they strike out way more than in the 1920s. Instead, it's because modern stadiums have way less foul ground than ballparks did in the 1920s. Before the foul-strike rule was universally adopted in 1903, batters were notoriously adept at fouling off pitches. After the rule made the first two fouls strikes, however, it made less sense to foul off pitch after pitch, and so that feature of the game rapidly disappeared. In the 1930s, Luke Appling became famous for fouling off pitches seemingly at will, which illustrates what a lost art that had become. Nowadays, hitters aren't so much fouling off pitches on purpose as they are fouling them off because there's so little foul ground in most stadiums (Oakland being the most prominent exception).

In short, plenty of foul balls that land in the seats today would have been foul outs in the 1920s. In OOTP, however, I'd wager that hitters in the 1920s hit foul balls about as often as they do in the 2010s. So if you're seeing pitchers in 1927 throwing 130+ pitches in a game, it's probably because a pitcher throwing a complete game in 2019 under the same conditions would throw about 130 pitches.
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Old 10-31-2019, 01:30 AM   #3
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1927 NY Yankees simulation

I played 5 full seasons replays to see if the errors were close to historical which were 196 during the 1927 season .



The 5 seasons the NY yankees errors were 211, 247,232,255, and 271. Average is 243 errors. Based on historical experience this is 24% higher than actual performance . Has anyone experienced the same results ?
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Old 10-31-2019, 01:43 PM   #4
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Just wondering, are you using as played lineups. Have you checked some of the other teams? What are the error rates of the SS and 2nd baseman vs their real counterparts? I really do not track errors but it would be interesting.
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Old 10-31-2019, 07:59 PM   #5
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1927 Pirates

I have simmed 8 seasons of the 1927 season . The NY Yankees stats overall are very accurate . Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig HR's are very accurate , Ruth had 58, 60 ,61.



The only team that has been way off on winning percentage is the 1927 Pirates . They have not won the NL and have always fallen in the middle of the pack record wise.



Has anyone else experienced the same stats with the 27 Pirates ?



PS errors have drooped a little for the Yankees . Last sim 205 they had 196 during 1927
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Old 11-01-2019, 10:39 AM   #6
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The only team that has been way off on winning percentage is the 1927 Pirates . They have not won the NL and have always fallen in the middle of the pack record wise.
Given that the NL pennant race was extremely close that year, it wouldn't be too surprising if the Cardinals or the Giants won the title instead of the Bucs. It would, however, be surprising if the Pirates were a .500 team. Their lineup is just too good for that. So you'll have to provide way more information to determine why Pittsburgh isn't winning more. What settings are you using? What players are under-performing? Were there any significant injuries to key players?
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Old 11-01-2019, 01:05 PM   #7
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I've simmed the 1927 season about a hundred times for challenge mode packs. Yankees win the AL probably 95% of the time -- sometimes the Athletics are close. Out of the NL it's usually the Giants or the Cubs. Pirates and Cardinals pop up the odd time, don't think I've seen anybody else. I would say the plurality matchup is a New York World Series.
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Old 11-02-2019, 02:54 PM   #8
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Just wondering, are you using as played lineups. Have you checked some of the other teams? What are the error rates of the SS and 2nd baseman vs their real counterparts? I really do not track errors but it would be interesting.

I have not checked other teams to see their historical error results . I am using as historical line ups .
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