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Old 11-07-2019, 10:34 PM   #1
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WAR Miscalculation?

OK I know, a lot of talk about WAR in these threads the last couple of days. But in-game, I just got super confused.

There's a superstar 2B in my league, stats attached. (don't pay too much attention to 1901-1902, I was still figuring out my modifiers lol) This past season he hit .336-7-100. This is deadball so .336 and 100 RBIs led the league. He also had a league-leading 40 doubles. His WAR turns out to be negative 0.2

This has to be a game error right? I know WAR is a mystery but I can't figure out why this player would ever have a negative WAR after a season like that.
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Old 11-07-2019, 10:39 PM   #2
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Really bad defensively? Poor baserunner?
WAR encompasses all these things.
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Old 11-08-2019, 10:32 AM   #3
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Yep

Defense and base running.

This is obviously a player in decline.

A few seasons ago he was putting up 10 win seasons with 175 OPS+ to 4-5 win seasons around 150 OPS+ and now replacement level.

This dude is no second baseman anymore

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Old 11-08-2019, 05:22 PM   #4
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-0.2 WAR with those offensive numbers? Whoa! As others have suggested, check his defense and baserunning to see if it's declined. That's still a precipitous drop. It didn't exactly come without warning (10.2 to 9.9 to 8.6 to 5.5 to 3.5, a slight bump to 4.5, and then another huge drop to -0.2 from 1904 through 1910), but it's still pretty massive.

You have to also consider his age in these things. He's gone from 29-35 in those seven seasons, and from 32 on is considered to be a player's decline years. That seems to be in line with his first big drop (8.6 to 5.5), so it might make sense, even if it sucks.

From the name (nap.PNG) of the file, I'm thinking this is Nap Lajoie, which means he's really hit a rough time compared with the RL guy. Do you have player development on? Do you have recalc on? What are the recalc settings? Player development settings? These are important to figure out what's going on here.

The player development settings can be found at Game Settings > Players & FaceGen > Player Development Settings, and the recalc settings can be found at Game Settings > League Settings > Historical > Historical Player Ratings. Crucial to know these in order to figure out what's going on, and how to fix it the way you want it for your future games.
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Old 11-08-2019, 05:44 PM   #5
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Hmm. I hear what everyone is saying here and certainly defense and base running are important factors. But with an OPS+ of 158, something feels very wrong here. Is it really possible for defense and base running to counteract what is still a very fine offensive season to this extreme extent?
Something isn't adding up here, I think.

A drop to 1.2 WAR I buy, maybe. A drop to -0.2, with this many quality plate appearances, no, I'm not sold.
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Old 11-08-2019, 05:55 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdWatcher View Post
Hmm. I hear what everyone is saying here and certainly defense and base running are important factors. But with an OPS+ of 158, something feels very wrong here. Is it really possible for defense and base running to counteract what is still a very fine offensive season to this extreme extent?
Something isn't adding up here, I think.

A drop to 1.2 WAR I buy, maybe. A drop to -0.2, with this many quality plate appearances, no, I'm not sold.
I agree with you wholeheartedly. However, it is very possible for that kind of drop in WAR to happen with recalc off, and development on if indeed this is a historical game, which I believe it is for reasons stated above. Recalc off/Development on = Anything is possible. As for -0.2 WAR with a 158 OPS+, that is bizarre, and I am skeptical too. What if recalc off/development on resulted in his defensive rating at 2B absolutely cratering? If there was a huge hit there, it would lead to absolutely horrific defensive stats because of the position involved. -0.2 WAR is crazy for that quality of offense though. Need more information on settings and defensive numbers for sure.
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Old 11-08-2019, 06:36 PM   #7
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Quote:
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I agree with you wholeheartedly. However, it is very possible for that kind of drop in WAR to happen with recalc off, and development on if indeed this is a historical game, which I believe it is for reasons stated above. Recalc off/Development on = Anything is possible. As for -0.2 WAR with a 158 OPS+, that is bizarre, and I am skeptical too. What if recalc off/development on resulted in his defensive rating at 2B absolutely cratering? If there was a huge hit there, it would lead to absolutely horrific defensive stats because of the position involved. -0.2 WAR is crazy for that quality of offense though. Need more information on settings and defensive numbers for sure.
Yeah, I see what you are saying. I just wonder how truly atrocious someone's fielding would have to be though to counteract such solid hitting numbers (both raw numbers and clearly by OPS+ in terms of how they compare to league numbers.) This is just speculation but based upon his 40 doubles and 4 triples (not a high number but not zero and pretty in line with hit totals from at least a few of the preceding seasons) and even his 15 stolen bases (yes, he was also caught 10 times) it doesn't feel like he had some sort of falling off a cliff decline in pure speed. And therefore, I suspect he likely didn't have a falling off a cliff decline in defensive range either. Did he suddenly forget how to turn a double play and did he simultaneously start making errors by the bucket-full? Maybe. But it seems a stretch to me. Was his base running also just so catastrophically bad as to put him in negative WAR range? Seems like a lot of unlikely ifs and buts.
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Old 11-08-2019, 07:13 PM   #8
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2007 Griffey Jr. 116 wRC+ and -.6 fWAR
2008 Brad Hawpe 122 wRC+ and -.7 fWAR
were two of the best offensive seasons with negative fWAR that I could easily find.

Using baseball-reference's version of WAR
There's 2009 Adam Dunn with 144 OPS+ and -.4 WAR
1884 Joe Flynn with 127 OPS+ and -.2 WAR (just 253 PA)
1995 Juan Samuel 121 OPS+ and -.1 WAR (237 PA)


So, yes, it's definitely possible to have a good, even very good, hitting year and lose all of that value through poor defense and base running.



Snider&Hodgers, you should be able to see his defensive Zone Rating (I've never stumbled upon any kind of base running rating on OOTP). What was it?
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Old 11-08-2019, 07:32 PM   #9
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In my league from 1901-2000, Lajoie had a +7.5 WAR value in 1910. His ZR is +12.5 which is down from 1909 which was +21.6 but his efficiency is slightly higher in 1910.

Baseball Ref for 1910 shows him with a +10.0 for offensive WAR and -0.3 for defensive WAR.

My league was 3 year double weighted recalc, development engine off.
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Old 11-08-2019, 07:48 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
2007 Griffey Jr. 116 wRC+ and -.6 fWAR
2008 Brad Hawpe 122 wRC+ and -.7 fWAR
were two of the best offensive seasons with negative fWAR that I could easily find.

Using baseball-reference's version of WAR
There's 2009 Adam Dunn with 144 OPS+ and -.4 WAR
1884 Joe Flynn with 127 OPS+ and -.2 WAR (just 253 PA)
1995 Juan Samuel 121 OPS+ and -.1 WAR (237 PA)


So, yes, it's definitely possible to have a good, even very good, hitting year and lose all of that value through poor defense and base running.



Snider&Hodgers, you should be able to see his defensive Zone Rating (I've never stumbled upon any kind of base running rating on OOTP). What was it?
Ah, thank you. That was actually something I was trying to find but hadn't figured it out yet. (Hawpe's I would think has at least something to do with ballpark adjustments.)
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Old 11-08-2019, 08:06 PM   #11
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Ah, thank you. That was actually something I was trying to find but hadn't figured it out yet. (Hawpe's I would think has at least something to do with ballpark adjustments.)
Or ballpark.

A huge OF for a bad outfielder to patrol leaves the possibility for LOTS of hits to fall in.
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Old 11-08-2019, 08:09 PM   #12
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Hi guys,

Thanks for the replies. You guys were definitely on the right track. I looked at his fielding stats from the season (1910) and it's ATROCIOUS. At first, before I posted about this, I looked at errors. He made a fair share but there weren't at all terrible, compared to the league average. Then I looked at ZR today as it was mentioned, and GOOD LORD. I admittedly know little about ZR but I can take a guess that that is awful. And while his Infield Error rating is 75/100, his range is 20/100, so it makes sense.

This is a spectator league so I have no control over what that team does. There's no DH so if they want to keep playing him for his bat, even though he's an actual stalagmite on defense, more power to them.

It is in fact Nap Lajoie, but player development is 'average talent change randomness'. Fielding ratings are based on a 3-year period. There is no player rating recalc - I'm letting the OOTP engine develop these guys. To clarify, I don't mind at all that this happened, I think oddities like this is part of the OOTP fun. It just took me by shock because with how he's been swinging the bat, I never pictured this version of Lajoie as a less than replacement player, even at this age.
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Old 11-08-2019, 08:28 PM   #13
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Then I looked at ZR today as it was mentioned, and GOOD LORD
Yikes!

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I admittedly know little about ZR but I can take a guess that that is awful.
Yes. Definitely awful. The worst I have ever seen

There are a few versions of Zone Rating, and I'm not sure exactly which OOTP uses.

The gist for all of them. A defensive player is given a zone. Every ball in the zone counts. Every play made counts. Then you get a percentage of plays made. That gets compared to average. Different ratings treat balls out of the zone differently. In '01 to '06 he made more plays than average. From '07 on, less than average.

This is then converted to runs with different types of plays having different values (one value for a single prevented/allowed, another for a double prevented/allowed, etc). I assume the value displayed is the run value. So, Nap allowed 60 more runs to score than the average 2Bman.

Range Factor is a bad defensive stat, but you can see that in 1910 he made around 1 less play per game than he was making in '01 to '06. Since he's playing 140-150 games a year, that's 140-150 less plays per season.

That's a ton.

Imagine how, if he were getting 140-150 less hits per season, that would tank his production.

Quote:
And while his Infield Error rating is 75/100, his range is 20/100, so it makes sense.
Ouch
Any injuries? Like between '06 and '07? That's when the decline started. He lost 30 runs between those two seasons.
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Old 11-08-2019, 08:36 PM   #14
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Yup. Makes more sense now.
Holy crap, how did he get SOOOO bad?!
I was having a hard time seeing how defense could be so bad that it would fully negate such solid hitting. Well, I guess I just wasn't thinking creatively enough about just how bad a defender could be. I can see now that there can be a extreme bad enough to swing WAR all the way to the dark side even for a 158 OPS+ player.

Now, maybe if he could play first base instead.
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Old 11-08-2019, 08:54 PM   #15
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Yup, that makes a lot more sense CB. Thanks.

No injuries to speak of but looking at his past scouting, it looks like his overall defensive rating at 2B went from 76 to 70 after the 1906 season, and then 70 to 54 after the 1907 season. He was 31/32 years old, so I guess the OOTP engine figured something had to go, rolled a dice, and it was Nap's defense haha.

I'm sure there will be a point when the AI decides that his hitting is no longer making up for the Shakespearean tragedy of a defense. I'm curious to see when that happens.

Also, speaking more in terms of stats in general, ZR seems like a very interesting one. I like it because sometimes, errors and fielding percentage can punish good fielders (if a 3B makes a great stop but then throws the ball away, it's an error. If another 3B just doesn't even get to the ball and it rolls into LF, no error.) So ZR makes everyone accountable for balls in their own little bubble.
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Old 11-08-2019, 09:21 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
2007 Griffey Jr. 116 wRC+ and -.6 fWAR
2008 Brad Hawpe 122 wRC+ and -.7 fWAR
were two of the best offensive seasons with negative fWAR that I could easily find.

Using baseball-reference's version of WAR
There's 2009 Adam Dunn with 144 OPS+ and -.4 WAR
1884 Joe Flynn with 127 OPS+ and -.2 WAR (just 253 PA)
1995 Juan Samuel 121 OPS+ and -.1 WAR (237 PA)

So, yes, it's definitely possible to have a good, even very good, hitting year and lose all of that value through poor defense and base running.

Snider&Hodges, you should be able to see his defensive Zone Rating (I've never stumbled upon any kind of base running rating on OOTP). What was it?
Baserunning (BsR) is definitely available. It's available in the View menu. Say you want to make a new page with different batting stats on it then "Batting Stats 1" or "Batting Stats 2". I've called mine "Batting Award Stats", but the name is not important. Click on the "View" menu. At the top of the menu, you'll see "Customize...". Click on that. There you can adjust things like the view of a player's name (long, short, first name, last name), and all the batting stats you can possibly handle, courtesy the "Batting Stats" tab. I had to pare it down in order to fit every category that I wanted in there without everything getting squished.

When you're done selecting categories, hit Enter or Select, or whatever the button is, and your screen will pop up. It will say that it's "Batting Stats 1" or "Batting Stats 2", but that's just temporary because you have one more step to do. Click on the "View" menu again. Right below "Customize...", you should see "Save View". Give it a different name from the other two in order to preserve them, and voila, you have all the batting stats/pitching stats (using the same method, only you get to the View menu via "Pitching Stats 1" or "Pitching Stats 2") that you want on one page. You can do this for Fielding Stats as well.

BsR is the far right column in the pretty pictures below. First sorted by WAR, then high to low BsR, then low to high BsR.
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Old 11-08-2019, 09:27 PM   #17
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Yup. Makes more sense now.
Holy crap, how did he get SOOOO bad?!
I was having a hard time seeing how defense could be so bad that it would fully negate such solid hitting. Well, I guess I just wasn't thinking creatively enough about just how bad a defender could be. I can see now that there can be a extreme bad enough to swing WAR all the way to the dark side even for a 158 OPS+ player.

Now, maybe if he could play first base instead.
Lajoie did play 1B IRL, but we're talking about 2497.0 innings vs 18034.0 innings at 2B. He desperately needs to make the switch. Like now. But only if he can of course.
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Old 11-08-2019, 09:33 PM   #18
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I'm sure there will be a point when the AI decides that his hitting is no longer making up for the Shakespearean tragedy of a defense. I'm curious to see when that happens.
Some time last year seems like when it should have happened.
Keep us updated.
I'm now invested, at least a little bit, in your sim.

You might let us know about his baserunning too.

It'd be weird if it was only his defense that declined so dramatically

Quote:
Also, speaking more in terms of stats in general, ZR seems like a very interesting one. I like it because sometimes, errors and fielding percentage can punish good fielders (if a 3B makes a great stop but then throws the ball away, it's an error. If another 3B just doesn't even get to the ball and it rolls into LF, no error.) So ZR makes everyone accountable for balls in their own little bubble.
A smart cookie.
Lots of people never make that leap, even when it's spelled out for them.

There are problems, though, at least in the real life version (OOTP should have perfect information unless they specifically muddied the waters). Defining the zones, player positioning within the zones, accounting for balls out of the zone, the run value of the batted balls (should that have been a double or a single), etc...

In OOTP, of course, the information should be perfect (unless it was decided that
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Old 11-08-2019, 09:36 PM   #19
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Baserunning (BsR) is definitely available. It's available in the View menu.
Must be new in XX. I don't see it in 19.
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Old 11-08-2019, 10:00 PM   #20
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So basically the development engine clobbered his defensive rating. Yes, the development engine should have moved him to first, IMO.
In real life he played pretty well for about 4 more years.
I would be interested in knowing what development settings you used.
I thought this was a good thread.
Thanks OP.

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